David Lereah Watch Mentioned In Salon (Again)

The David Lereah Watch Blog was mentioned again in Salon's How the World Works column. Below is an excerpt:

Housing: The good, the bad and the funny

The good news: Sales of existing homes ticked upward for the first time in eight months, by .5 percent over September.

The bad news: Sales are still down 11.5 percent year-over-year and the median home price plummeted by $8,000 over a year ago, the largest year-to-year drop on record. Inventory levels also continued to rise, which promises to put even more pressure on prices.

The funny news: National Association of Realtors chief economist David Lereah said "market fundamentals are improving" and blamed "psychological factors" for continuing to inhibit buyers from snapping up all those great deals out there. (For an amusing look at Lereah's go-go presentation at the recent National Association of Realtors convention in New Orleans, check out DavidLereahWatch: In short, there's never been a better time to buy, buy, buy!

Thanks for the mention! As the housing market continues to decline Mr. Lereah will become a laughing stock.

More Spin From David Lereah

NAR's October existing home sales showed a seasonally adjusted increase in home sales of .5% from September, a median sales price decline of 3.5% year over year and inventories of unsold homes increased 1.9% to 3.854 million, representing a 7.4-month supply at the October sales rate. This is largest months' supply since April 1993.

Lereah On Sales: "The present level of home sales demonstrates some confidence in the market, but sales are lower than sustainable due to psychological factors."

“The present level of home sales demonstrates some confidence in the market, but sales are lower than sustainable due to psychological factors,” he said. “The demographics of our growing population, historically low and declining mortgage interest rates, and healthy job creation mean the wherewithal is there to buy homes in most of the country, but many buyers remain on the sidelines. After a period of price adjustment, we’ll see more confidence in the market and a lift to home sales should be apparent in the first quarter of 2007.”

“‘As expected, existing-home sales appear to be stabilizing, fingers and toes crossed,’ said Lereah. Falling prices are ‘a good thing,’ Lereah said

Falling prices are good thing? Tell that to all the f*cked borrowers who you encouraged to take out toxic mortgages and some of them now have negative equity. Lereah you shopuld be ashamed of you deception, shame and folly. You have lost credibility. The Realtors should choose someone else to lead them.

Freeloing Roomate wrote: "In Lereah’s own words months-supply is the most important statistic. Months-supply continues to rise. The market fundamentals are deteriorating according to Lereah’s own metrics."

David Lereah's Presentation At Realtors Convention

David Lereah's presention The Road to Recovery, slide number 1, at the Realtor's Annual Convention in New Orleans (Nardi Gras). It is ironic that there is a steep treacherous cliff on the edge of the road and clouds ahead.

Announcing it is a 'Unique Housing Cycle,' Lereah blames the current declines on affordability problems, investor flight, psychology and a media scare.

Sidelined Buyers: Lereah tells potential buyer that the 'Buyer's Market Will Soon End.' David , Paid Shill, Lereah is once again using scare tactics to sell houses. Lereah is a disgrace. His books have been discredited. Lereah, will go down in infamy as the housing bubble continues to pop. Lereah is the new Irving Fisher. [Notice the '184,0000' number. It is a mistype. Should have been 184,000. Great job Lereah! (thanks to a reader for noticing Lereah's mistype]

David Lererah mocks the 'Negative Media'.

'Buyers Are Missing Opportunities If They Postpone.' He asks "Can you afford NOT to lock in now?" given today's low interest rates. Does Lereah have no shame?

Lereah's last slide is a quote from Greenspan saying that "Most of the negatives in housing are probably behind us. The fourth quarter should be reasonably good, certainly better than the third quarter."

Lereah @ Nardi Gras

Lereah and his fellow Realtors are at the annual National Assocation of Realtors convention. This year they are down in New Orleans. Last year New Orleans was underwater, this year many homeowners are underwater on thier mortgage.

To cheer up up grumpy Realtors, who pay Mr. Lereah's salary, he offered hope.

"We need a price decline, we were overbloated," particularly on the West Coast, David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, told attendees at his organization's annual meeting here on Friday.

"In 2007, it will be a flat year, maybe 1 percent [sales] drop, and that's it," Lereah said. "After 2007, we'll be back to expansion again."

Lereah forecast that 2006 sales will end up about 9 percent lower than in 2005, a record year. He anticipates sales of 6.47 million units, declining to 6.43 million next year. Prices nationwide will be down by about 2 percent, year over year, and will inch up by 1.5 percent in 2007, he said.

New-home sales will decline this year by 16.8 percent, to 1.07 million units, and will sink 8.7 percent further next year, to 975,000, he said.

Lereah said inventory is stabilizing, citing his trade group's data on pending sales--homes that have gone under contract.

"It appears that inventory has peaked," said Lereah, who now estimates a 7.3 month supply of available homes nationwide.

"We were hovering near four to five months' [supply of homes for sale] during the boom, and in some areas, such as Orange County, Calif., we were measuring it in weeks, not months."

But Lereah said the national picture is positive. "I'm optimistic for 74 percent of the country," where local markets are, at worst, flat. The other 26 percent are in for some rough times."

Struggling the most would be California, South Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and metro Washington, D.C., he said, where sellers need to lower their prices.

Mr. Lereah, the discredited chief economist propagandist for the Realtor is still whitewashing the real estate reality. He is also busy saying self contradictory things.

David Lereah's My Space Page*

Check out David Lereah's My Space Page. Ok, it is not really David Lereah's page. Someone just created it to mock him. He has three friends listed, one of them being Satan. On his blog it is written

Watch out for my HATERS Current mood: annoyed

Hey someone just told me about this site:David Lereah Watch

Watch out... This looks like a place to read all about what I have to
say about real estate but this guy is just making fun of me!

Very funny! Keep the criticism rolling!

David Lereah Watch Mentioned in SF Gate

The David Lereah Watch was mentioned in a San Fransisco Gate article title 'Bubble Bloggers are the new real estate sages.' As Cramer says 'Boo Ya!'

But despite the daunting numbers, the real estate industry continues to post optimistic predictions like a tribe of Pollyannas on steroids. Last week, David Lereah, author of 2006's "Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust" and the National Association of Realtor's chief economist, had the audacity to suggest that "the worst is behind us" in terms of lagging sales numbers in September.

Times have changed, though. When the market was boomin', his word might've been taken as gospel. But now that the sky is falling, bubble bloggers have become the sages of the day. In August, Ben Jones, creator of Thehousingbubbleblog.com, was featured in a Q&A on Newsweek's Web site, and Andrew Leonard covered his blog in Salon. Last week, David Lereah Watch, the Internet watchdog of the industry's most relentless booster, was mentioned in Business Week. .....

Other blogs have attempted to give this mathematical mayhem a human face. David Lereah Watch chronicles the botched predictions issuing from this high-profile industry insider

Neat. Thanks for the mention. :-)

David Lereah Watch Essay Competition

The David Lereah Watch Blog has launched an essay competition for the most scathing criticism of David Lereah. Be Fair! Be Tough!

Rules:

• All essays must be submitted by November 27th at 11:30pm EST via emailing bubblemeter @ gmail.com. (A winner will be announced by December 15th)
• All essay must be at least 500 words and no longer then 1500 words.
• No obscene language. No swear words
  
• Use at least 3 quotes by Mr. Lereah (and date them)
• All essays must have a title of your choosing
• One Submission Per Person

The winner's essay will be published on the David Lereah Watch. The winner will receive an acknowledgement or can choose to remain anonymous. The winner will also receive $75 in cold hard cash.