Saturday, October 28, 2006

David Lereah Watch Mentioned In Business Week

The David Lereah Watch was mentioned in Peter Coy's Hot Property column:
Every problem has to have a public face, and to many people, David Lereah is the public face of the housing slump. People say Lereah was too upbeat about house prices in the boom (he wrote a badly timed 2005 book called "Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?" Now, they say, he has overreached to put a positive spin on the downside. There is an entire blog devoted to trashing the genial Lereah, who is chief economist of the National Association of Realtors

I'm not usually one for piling on, but I couldn't resist passing along this wisecrack about Lereah from Peter Schiff, the bearish president of brokerage firm Euro Pacific Capital, It was emailed to me by his brother and publicist:

"If the National Association of Realtors chief economist David Lereah had covered the arrival of the Hindenburg in New Jersey in 1937 (instead of Herb "Oh the Humanity" Morrison) it too may have been described as a 'soft landing.'"
Peter Schiff's joke about David Lereah is phenomenal. LOL! :-)

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Lereah 'worst is behind us' for Home Sales

The NAR released thier September Existing Homes today. Mr. Lereah had this to say:

“Considering that existing-home sales are based on closed transactions, this is a lagging indicator and the worst is behind us as far as a market correction – this is likely the trough for sales,” he said. “When consumers recognize that home sales are stabilizing, we’ll see the buyers who’ve been on the sidelines get back into the market, and sales will be at more normal levels in the wake of the unsustainable boom that we saw last year.”

What will he say next?

Sunday, October 22, 2006

David Lereah's New Book

David Lereah is at it a again. He is writing yet another book titled 'All Real Estate is Local: Why Understanding the Housing Trends in Your Area Is Essential to Building Wealth.'

From the Publisher:

Book Description

When real estate booms nationally, there are hundreds of cities and regions that lag behind. Similarly, when the market slows or flattens, countless states and neighborhoods begin to boom. As Lereah makes clear, the most important factor in buying or selling a home is the local market conditions. Lereah shows readers how to:

  • Evaluate the values of homes in one's own town or county
  • Determine whether property values in your targeted neighborhood are on the rise
  • Assess the market conditions in locations when buying a vacation or second home
  • Learn how to identify markets that are overvalued or fully valued, and those that promise to appreciate more quickly in the future
  • Understand the local economic developments that can affect one’s investment in the future

There are countless books offering advice on making money in real estate. This is the first one to explain why knowing the ins and outs of your local region is essential to deciding when, and where, to buy.


Even in 2006 as the housing bubble was popping, David Lereah updated his book and wrote "I believe that in years to come historians will see the beginning of the twenty-first century as the "golden age" of real estate. And I want to persuade you to take advantage of this historic opportunity. In the first part of the book, I will paint a clear picture of today's real estate boom and explain why the boom will continue well into the next decade."

David Lereah's Book Changes

Mr. Lereah tells half truths and manipulates facts and figures. He cannot be trusted as he is a paid shill.

Thursday, October 05, 2006

David Lereah Respond's To Moody's Housing at Tipping Point

David Lereah responded to Moody's negative report on Housing at Tipping Point:
David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, disagrees with the severity of the price downturn in the report.

"It's possible we could go under zero, if you include prices of new homes" along with sales data for existing homes, he said. "For existing homes, I'm still predicting that prices will be above [last year] by 2 percent."

Nonetheless, Lereah agreed that broad price declines in some regions are unavoidable.

"I don't think I would use the word `crash,'" he said. "When you use a word like that, it's almost a self-fulfilling prophecy in the housing market. These are people's homes. Their retirement is depending on it."
Is Mr. Lereah saying that if people's retirement did not depend on the housing market then he would use the term 'crash' like Moody's did? If the housing market was indeed based on fundamentals, in the bubble markets using the term 'crash' would not become a 'self-fulfilling prophecy.'

Mr. Lereah, you were one of the housing cheerleaders who encouraged people down this dangerous path. You even wrote two books promoting the housing boom. As Ben Jones wrote "Maybe the NAR should have been urging caution the past few years instead of cheering prices higher."