Sunday, May 06, 2007

Lereah: "We're in a Real Estate Recession" Etc.

David Lereah speaking with a reported from the Chicago Tribune had many things to say "We're in a real estate recession." I actually agree with Mr. Lereah! Wow! Lereah stated:

"I'm projecting the first [nationwide] price drop since the Great Depression," he said. "We're going to have negative home prices in 2007."
Is Lereah finally coming clean? Is Lereah really saying things that reflect reality?

In the Chicago Tribune Article the David Lereah Watch was quoted:
"The media regularly turns to him for real estate quotes," said David Jackson, who created the hypercritical David Lereah Watch blog because he believed the economist was churning the housing market. "Lereah tells half-truths and manipulates facts and figures. He cannot be trusted, as he is a paid shill."
In response Lereah shrugged off the criticism stating "I feel confident I did a very good job forecasting and reflected what was happening in the marketplace .If anybody actually took the time to read my book, rather than just comment on the title, I was insistent in it that ... a frenetic boom was unsustainable. I predicted a downturn [would occur] shortly after I wrote it, in 2005,"

"But first he has one more public appearance, at a Realtors' conference in Washington. He warns that his speech will not be cheery."

"I am going to say, look, guys, we all have to face the music," Lereah said. "We strayed from [economic] fundamentals, and we're paying for it. It's not an all-out bust, not a crash in real estate, but it is a recession. This is going to cleanse the markets and in the long term this is what we have needed.

Nonetheless, he said housing's long-term prospects are good. "I am the cheerleader for real estate," he said. "I will always be the cheerleader. I think it's the best investment anybody can make."

"In characteristic cheerleader style he demurred when asked whether he ever felt pressure from within NAR to skew forecasts in a positive direction."

"You'll have to talk to me about that in two or three weeks," Lereah said. "I work for NAR now."

29 Comments:

At 5:29 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

FU Lereah!

You will go down in history as the biggest bubble pumper and it is all documented on the internet.

You said home prices go up inflation + 1 or 2%.
well if this is the case and home prices went up in some bubble markets 100% + in last 5-6 years then common sense says house prices need to drop alot to get us to this inflation +1 or 2% trendline.

 
At 5:44 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The foreclosed homedebtors can go to Move.com to find rental properties.

 
At 6:12 AM, Anonymous chicago real estate bubble said...

I thought this part was telling...

"asked whether he ever felt pressure from within NAR to skew forecasts in a positive direction.

"You'll have to talk to me about that in two or three weeks," Lereah said. "I work for NAR now."

 
At 1:05 PM, Anonymous chicago real estate bubble said...

"I'm projecting the first [nationwide] price drop since the Great Depression,"

Welcome to the party...YOU'RE LATE!

"If anybody actually took the time to read my book, rather than just comment on the title, I was insistent in it that ... a frenetic boom was unsustainable."

LIE!!!!!

"I predicted a downturn [would occur] shortly after I wrote it, in 2005,"

Then why didn't you title your book as such.

"Just four months ago, it looked like we were on the road to a very nice recovery," Lereah said. "Then the subprime [mortgage] market blew up, and that has substantially inhibited lending. It was a monkey wrench that was thrown in; no one would have predicted it two years ago, no one."

Except for Dean Schiller, Dean Baker, Mark Zandi everyone on all the blogs...

 
At 5:53 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

no one would have predicted it two years ago, no one."


NOONE! HA!

It time for you to come clean lereah. Now its time to admit that homes prices need to correct down alot to correct for these excessive prices.

Inflation +1 or 2% appreciation per year will require a huge drop in home prices to get down to that long term trendline.

 
At 10:23 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

“Home prices are expected to finish down for the year, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday, which would mark the first drop since the group started tracking values in 1968. According to Lawrence Yun, a senior economist for NAR, speculative investing in real estate, which contributed to abnormal price growth for several years, has all but disappeared in the present market.”
==============

NAR admitting falling prices????

HOW ABOUT AN APOLOGY TO ALL THOSE PEOPLE WHO LISTENED TO YOUR ADVICE TO JUST BUY AND ARE NOW LOSING SLEEP OR WILL BE GOING INTO BANKRUPTCY BECAUSE THEY COULD NOT AFFORD THE OVER PRICED HOUSES YOU PUMPED.
================

WANT TO COME CLEAN ADMIT PRICES ARE WAY OVER VALUED?

Boycott using a realtor

 
At 12:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Consumers drive the cost of housing, a house will only sell for what a consumer is willing to pay. People need to start taking responsibility for their own actions and stop pointing fingers and blaming others for their own stupidity. If you take out an adjustable rate mortgage, the law requires a worst case payment scenario be disclosed. If you go ahead and do the deal anyway how is that Lereahs fault? A home is a long term investment just like any other investment. Stop whinning and blaming economists Realtors, lenders and everyone else. Its called personal responsibility.

 
At 12:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Its called personal responsibility. "

Where is David Lereah's personal responsibility?

He admitted to cheeleading the housing market and now millions of homeowners face foreclosure. Huges amounts of US capitol has been misallocated.

 
At 1:56 PM, Blogger Pegasus said...

(((((((PANIC))))))))

Now that sales have slowed to a crawl for the National Association of Realtors they will now resort to statements designed to scare people into selling their homes at any price. The greed cycle is over and here comes the fear cycle. Either way those realtors make their commission which is much more important than whether the homeowner makes money.

Watch and learn. Statements that housing prices are declining is just the start. The hype to spread fear is on its way.

(((((((PANIC))))))))

 
At 6:21 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bring on the fear.

This hopuisng market needs a major price correction anyway to get them back to affordability.

Boycott realtors.

 
At 10:07 AM, Anonymous Lee Scott said...

Pegasus, there was an article in my local paper about real estate agents in my town organizing workshops to get to the word out that homesellers have to start lowering their prices. I was shocked. But you're right, realtors can only hold out for so long hoping for some B.S. happy ending. They gotta put food on the table, and when their fat commissions from 2005 start running out, you'll see a lot of them telling people to slash their prices.

 
At 7:13 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sorry old blokes,

I'll defend Lereah. For two reasons.

1) I sold my house by the end of 2006 thanks to this great bubble exported in most urban areas of the planets including my place in Normandy. We have been renting since. Great!

2) We have the same kind of person here. Our local Lereah is named Michel Mouillard.

Interesting figure. Same profile, same job (scope is France), same predictions...

Just quitted the job recently b y the way. He changed his mind by the way (no joke).

I do not like either guys. Would not buy them a used car. But they are doing the bad job they are paid for.

So the question is

"Why the hell, does a whole country trust the NAB (or in France their equivalent FNAIM) for economic information."

 
At 11:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Truth in lending disclosure. If you bought a house and didn't know what you were getting into - shame on you. Lereah was doing his job. Besides, do you think one person had that much of an impact??? You all heard what you wanted to hear and now you're pointing fingers...

 
At 10:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

SHAME ON YOU!!!!!!!!!

PUMPING AND PUMPING AND PUMPING!

TAKE THE MEDICINE FOR YOUR GREED.

I am not using a realtor ever again.

Until they apologize to the public and then admit prices are way way overpriced.

 
At 10:39 AM, Blogger earthguy said...

A lot of anger from losers here.

 
At 7:31 AM, Blogger W.C. Varones said...

Lereah is mentioned (and David Lereah Watch is linked) in the new Countrywide song.

 
At 7:48 PM, Blogger Perfect Storm said...

David Lierah watch should be changed to NAR watch and a full blown campaign by bubble bloggers to bring down the NAR.

 
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At 6:46 PM, Anonymous Lee Scott said...

Umm, where can we go to discuss the new NAR shill, Lawrence Yun? His comments following the latest drop in home prices was just as ridiculous as David's ever were. Seems like the NAR basically screens these "economists" for their willingness to have no integrity whatsoever. So again, can anyone tell me who's gonna keep an eye on the new guy?

 
At 5:54 AM, Blogger David said...

"Umm, where can we go to discuss the new NAR shill, Lawrence Yun?"

The other housing bubble bloggers.


"So again, can anyone tell me who's gonna keep an eye on the new guy?"

Someone should get a flashlight and shine the light brightly on the new guy. Start a blog dedicated to watching the
new guy.

 
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On his way out the door, the housing industry's self-described "cheerleader" is making one last economic forecast -- a sober one at that."We're in a real estate recession,said David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, who surprised many this week when he announced he would leave the Chicago-based trade group on May 19."I'm projecting the first [nationwide] price drop since the Great Depression," he said.costa rica fishing"We're going to have negative home prices in 2007."Ok guys, when the chief economist for NAR says this, what else is there to say?To those on this forum who because of vested intersest said otherwise, the jig is up.
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