Lereah: "We're in a Real Estate Recession" Etc.
David Lereah speaking with a reported from the Chicago Tribune had many things to say "We're in a real estate recession." I actually agree with Mr. Lereah! Wow! Lereah stated:
"I'm projecting the first [nationwide] price drop since the Great Depression," he said. "We're going to have negative home prices in 2007."Is Lereah finally coming clean? Is Lereah really saying things that reflect reality?
In the Chicago Tribune Article the David Lereah Watch was quoted:
"The media regularly turns to him for real estate quotes," said David Jackson, who created the hypercritical David Lereah Watch blog because he believed the economist was churning the housing market. "Lereah tells half-truths and manipulates facts and figures. He cannot be trusted, as he is a paid shill."In response Lereah shrugged off the criticism stating "I feel confident I did a very good job forecasting and reflected what was happening in the marketplace .If anybody actually took the time to read my book, rather than just comment on the title, I was insistent in it that ... a frenetic boom was unsustainable. I predicted a downturn [would occur] shortly after I wrote it, in 2005,"
"But first he has one more public appearance, at a Realtors' conference in Washington. He warns that his speech will not be cheery."
"I am going to say, look, guys, we all have to face the music," Lereah said. "We strayed from [economic] fundamentals, and we're paying for it. It's not an all-out bust, not a crash in real estate, but it is a recession. This is going to cleanse the markets and in the long term this is what we have needed.
Nonetheless, he said housing's long-term prospects are good. "I am the cheerleader for real estate," he said. "I will always be the cheerleader. I think it's the best investment anybody can make."
"In characteristic cheerleader style he demurred when asked whether he ever felt pressure from within NAR to skew forecasts in a positive direction."
"You'll have to talk to me about that in two or three weeks," Lereah said. "I work for NAR now."