Lereah on Foreclosure Properties
"There are some good buying opportunities," says David Lereah, the NAR's chief economist. "But don't repeat the mistakes of the foreclosed borrowers." (USAToday 3/29/07)
David Lereah is the former Chief Economist and Senior VP of the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Between 2001 and 2007, Mr. Lereah regularly made statements regarding the housing bubble. The media regulary turned to him for real estate quotes. He was very influential. Mr. Lereah tells half truths and manipulates facts and figures. He cannot be trusted as he was a paid shill.
"There are some good buying opportunities," says David Lereah, the NAR's chief economist. "But don't repeat the mistakes of the foreclosed borrowers." (USAToday 3/29/07)
David 'the paid shill' Lereah has been busy cheerleading the housing market and downplaying any risks. A few weeks back Lereah stated:
"Lending problems in our nation's subprime marketplace are building, which could inhibit future housing activity and further dampen our forecast. Even so, these problems are likely to be contained and not spill over into the prime mortgage market."Just a week or so later Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chairman, in a statement before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, he stated:
At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained. In particular, mortgages to prime borrowers and fixed-rate mortgages to all classes of borrowers continue to perform well, with low rates of delinquency. We will continue to monitor this situation closely.Is our Federal Reserve chairman just taking the National Association of Realtors' talking points and incorporating them into his economic outlook?
"David Lereah, chief economist for the national association, believes demand for homes could be cut by 150,000 to 200,000 annually this year and 2008."
David 'the paid shill' Lereah is at it again, contradicting himself. Recently, Mr. Lereah said:
"It was very clear that the standards had deteriorated," said David A. Lereah, senior vice president and chief economist of the National Assn. of Realtors. "I'm not a lender though. I kept on saying to myself — I guess they know what they're doing." (LATimes, March 22, 07)Did David Lereah really think that the lenders knew 'what they're doing?' Did he really trust them with lending standards? In a recent interview with Fortune magazine Mr. Lereah was asked "What about the problems in the subprime market?" Lereah responded by saying:
Which one is it Mr. Lereah? Did you or did you not trust the lenders with lending standards during the past few years? Or do you say whatever is convenient at the time, to sustain your credibility and help the Realtors? Are you just contradicting yourself (confused) or are you lying?
I was giving a speech in Atlanta about two years ago. During the question and answer period, someone asked me something about interest-only loans. I said, they're kind of dangerous and you have to be careful. Someone rose their hand and said, Did you know that in Atlanta, the percentage of interest-only loans in 2005 was 40 percent of the market? Atlanta didn't even have a boom. That's when I knew we were in trouble.
The David Lereah Watch Blog has made it to #1 on a Google search for 'David Lereah'. I'm thrilled. :-)
David 'Paid Shill' Lereah is now claiming the the housing market is doing a whole lot of scratching and that housing had hit bottom.
"Sales have hovered for the last four months, scratching bottom and then coming up, scratching bottom and coming up again. We are comfortable this is now the bottom"Due to all this scratching going on, perhaps, David Lereah is confused and has falsely called the bottom multiple times. This was his fourth time calling bottom (that I am aware of). Mr. Lereah has called the bottom on the following dates:
"I expect prices and sales to be modestly growing by June in most of the country," said David Lereah, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors and perhaps the most bullish housing economist. "But we'll have to go into 2008, maybe even 2009 before we get even close to the peaks we saw in late 2005 or early 2006." (CNN Money, March 8th, 2007)
"We are seeing temporary near-term weather disruptions in much of the country, but there is an underlying pattern of stabilization in the housing market, … As a result of these weather disruptions, it may take a couple months for the picture to fully clarify, but a modest recovery is likely. Housing remains a great long-term investment. The rapid shift in January to frigid air in much of the country had a cooling affect on home shopping that went beyond normal seasonal factors, … Weather disruptions have continued since.”
January 2007 Precipitation in US: Overall about normal
January 2007 Temperature in US: Overall about normal
These weather maps shows temperature and precipitation conditions in the US in January. Overall, for the country the temperature conditions were about normal (with the east coast and Midwest experiencing above normal temps, and the southwest experiencing below normal) and the precipitation was about normal.
Where is Mr. Lereah's evidence for the claim the weather significantly impacted sales? Mr. Lereah is wrongly blaming the weather for the continuing decline of housing sales. Mr. Lereah is getting more desperate as his half truths, spin and deception are further exposed.
Some of my fellow bloggers have come to my aid against David Lereah. Socal Housing Bubble writes:
To me, the only thing that’ s wierd is that he hasn’t taken on any of the other detractors… who have much worse to say, are more read, and more specific to his stupidity. That he had to bring his mommy into the picture makes me wonder if he’s willing to fight his own battles.Furthermore, Andrew Leonard from How The World Works at Salon magazine writes:
That David Lereah is a baldface liar, or unbelievably incompetent is never questioned in the mainstream media. That some 26 year old has to ask the question (and it attains national media attention) means that it has struck a nerve… David, you have finally made it… Congratulations.
Now comes a Fortune interview that surprisingly reveals Lereah to have had doubts and fears about the housing market as far back as two years ago (when he says he knew the subprime market was "in trouble"). On a normal day, we would make some effort to track down Lereah's public statements at the time and see if he shared any of that insight with the general public. But this is no normal day. In the interview, David Lereah takes a shot at blogger David Jackson, Lereah's most relentless critic in the blogosphere. As a part-time housing bubble blogger, How the World Works must stand in solidarity. (Thanks to the Housing Bubble Blog for the Fortune link.)Thanks for the massive complement when you called me 'Lereah's most relentless critic in the blogosphere.' I am humbled.
Here's the latest from The Corrupt David Lereah in Fortune magazine. This guy contradicts himself so much in the same interview, he must be either bipolar or crazy. Absolutely bizarre. I think he needs an intervention.
To David over at the davidlereahwatch and my fellow bubble bloggers - let's turn the heat up on this guy even more. The MSM must stop picking up this guy's BS as truth, he must be called out for what he is, and the NAR must be exposed.
The people of America (and the MSM) should see TCDL as the discredited hack that he is. "Lereah" should go down in American history as yet another Charles Ponzi, yet another Henry Blodgett, yet another snake oil salesman spreading lies and destruction for profit. And the perfect personification for a corrupt REIC and a pathetic and paranoid National Association of Realtors.A HOUSINGPANIC MESSAGE TO THE CORRUPT DAVID LEREAH:MR. LEREAH, YOU'RE A LIAR, A HACK AND A SHILL. YOU AND YOUR MASTERS AT THE NAR ARE HURTING AMERICA. FAMILIES ARE LOSING THEIR HOMES BECAUSE OF YOUR LIES, CHEERLEADING AND DISTORTION. MILLIONS WILL GO UNEMPLOYED BECAUSE OF YOUR BUBBLE.HAVE YOU NO SHAME?
In an interview with Fortune Magazine, Mr. Lereah, attacked this blog after being asked about it.
No, Mr. Lereah is not Satan. Mr. Lereah exaggerates things. I never called him Satan. I never said he was evil. This blog is actually pretty tame when it comes to crtitizing Mr. Lereah. Check the archives.Fortune: You've been accused by the blog David Lereah Watch of being too bullish. What's it like to have an online antagonist?
Lereah: At first I was kind of laughing. And now, it's enough already. This is a 26-year old that could not afford a townhouse and blamed it on the boom. And then he said, Who's talking about the boom and my name kept coming up. So I became Satan to him.
The worst was that my mother read one of those things, and she almost started crying. And I had to say, Mom, you have to have thick skin. I'm going to be in the public and make statements about real estate, and if someone doesn't like what I'm saying, they have every right to say something opposing me.
Now should they go so far as to call me Satan? I don't understand where that's coming from. That's just weird.