Saturday, March 24, 2007

Lereah on Suprime Tightening

"David Lereah, chief economist for the national association, believes demand for homes could be cut by 150,000 to 200,000 annually this year and 2008."

"Our view is that the tightening in the subprime market will have a negative impact on home sales," Lereah said in a statement. "It probably won't postpone the recovery (in housing), but it will slow it." (LA Daily News, March 23, 07)

54 Comments:

At 10:41 PM, Blogger Pegasus said...

I love it. The real estate market has been imploding in most of the US and the paid shill David Lereah thinks it might only impact 150,000 or 200,000 sales. I wonder what his mother thinks of that completely fraudulent statement? If she is smart she will completely disown him and file a protective order to prevent him from coming within a thousand yards of her because David is going to be a danger to be close to as the masses rise up and chase the offending liars(David) out of the country.

 
At 8:32 AM, Blogger JuliusCleaver said...

Where is your proof that is a fraudulent statement? Home sales are doing well in most parts of the country. Those that are suffering are seemingly due to bad politics, like Michigan which went on a tax everything agenda only to see their economy implode, not in healthy areas. Where is your proof that Mr. Lereah made a fraudulent statement? If you don't have any proof doesn't that make your statement fraudulent?

 
At 11:10 AM, Blogger Jazen said...

I think he is assuming the statement to be fraudulent because in a couple months from now, Evil Dr. Lereah will come out and say that the implosion will now most probably impact 300,000 to 500,000 sales. While all along the Evil Dr. knew that the impact annually will probably be 1 million to 1.5 million.

 
At 11:52 AM, Blogger Perfect Storm said...

David Lereah thinks it might only impact 150,000 or 200,000 sales.

Subprime implosion and credit tightening will affect more than just 200,000 sales, it will be more like a million sales, Lierah is full of crap.

 
At 8:01 AM, Blogger Corey said...

Today's new home sales report: Demand down over half-a-million homes since 2005. Contractor bankruptcies loom. http://infohype.blogspot.com

 
At 10:27 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I DO NOT BELIEVE ANYTHING THE REALORS SAYS ANYMORE.

THEY PUMPED AND PUMPED AND PUMPED SAYING IT WAS A GOOD TIME TO BUY.

BS!

GET IN AT ANY COST. I WOULD BE A MISERABLE INDEBTED DEBT SLAVE AND PROBABLY BANKRUPT AT SOME POINT IF I LISTENED TO ALL THE SO CALLED EXPERTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 
At 1:04 PM, Blogger kbr7171 said...

I guess we have to at least give him credit for admitting it will have an impact. At least that's a step forward.

 
At 3:37 PM, Anonymous Gary Anderson said...

Doesn't something that postpones something also slows it? I am confused. Help me explain you lying....

Oh, I forgot, Realtors are dropping like flies. The free market by itself will clean Mr Lereah's clock.

 
At 6:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

JuliusCleaver said...
Where is your proof that is a fraudulent statement? Home sales are doing well in most parts of the country. ...Where is your proof that Mr. Lereah made a fraudulent statement? If you don't have any proof doesn't that make your statement fraudulent?

Question # 1- Where are home prices doing well in the US may I humbly ask?
Question # 2- What is your definition of "doing well", real estate price wise?
Question # 3-If you look back to the rah rah crowd during the last few years of Enron, Worldcom, etc. runup, you will see very few experts warning of troubles ahead. As experts misled investors with their advice of the stock value, what makes you think Liar-eah and the NAR won't do the same with housing?

While the housing bubble was inflating, everyone in real estate thought they were geniuses, but True Genius comes from knowing when to get out, and True Honesty comes from warning others to do likewise.
Lereah posesses neither of these qualities and will still call for a turnaround in housing until the market realizes what a know-nothing he really is.

 
At 11:45 PM, Blogger Marinite said...

As experts misled investors with their advice of the stock value, what makes you think Liar-eah and the NAR won't do the same with housing?

It's become part of the American culture...being told what to believe by the "experts", to stop thinking independently and critically, and to substitute for such thinking economic mythology, superstition, and catchy cliché.

 
At 3:39 AM, Blogger Richard M. Johnston, Realtor said...

Anonymous,

Owning a home is the American Dream. Nobody can predict the future, prices will go up and prices will come down. The real question is, when are you ready to make your dream a reality?

If waiting is your game plan, then do it. But after X number of years you still find yourself waiting, like you have been doing, then maybe buying a home is something thats not meant for you.

If trusting a Realtor is your problem, then make sure not to work with one when you buy.

 
At 4:12 AM, Blogger Jazen said...

RE-Dick
Have any words of wisedom from Dr Lereah? Do you two get together and have seances? How come we haven't heard anything from Dr. Lereah?

 
At 4:22 AM, Blogger Jazen said...

Oh and Dick, check this out.
Booyah!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/17810755
Eat it.

 
At 6:15 AM, Blogger JuliusCleaver said...

You gotta love the anonymous posters. Housing prices are doing well in many parts of the country. Houses are not stocks. People need housing. They don't need stocks. If I were to be worried about anything, I would be worried about the stock market, and frankly, I'm not even worried about that. The economy is doing great and I think in some areas housing prices are going to increase.

 
At 7:20 AM, Blogger Corey said...

New consumer confidence numbers may point to housing-led recession: http://infohype.blogspot.com

 
At 7:39 AM, Blogger Pegasus said...

juliusbeaver....." Housing prices are doing well in many parts of the country. Houses are not stocks. People need housing. They don't need stocks. If I were to be worried about anything, I would be worried about the stock market, and frankly, I'm not even worried about that. The economy is doing great and I think in some areas housing prices are going to increase."

You fit the MO for the fool in the "Greater Fool Theory". Enjoy your lack of knowledge. You won't be posting that garbage this time next year. You will be screaming "The sky is falling, the sky is falling" as you run around in helter-skelter circles.

As for Lereah he has already been proven wrong AGAIN and it has been less than two weeks. He has continually been proven wrong for years yet he still pumps out the lies. He is being paid to mislead the American public. Unfortunately for him the American public is on to him and he is becoming more and more ineffective in his lies. I expect David will actually try to tell the truth sometime in the future to rebuilt his credibility but alas too late. He won't be working there this time next year. The realtors will have replaced him with a new paid puppet.

 
At 12:26 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

House prices are going down in my bubble market.

Thankfully did not listen to scum who kept pumping real estate. Now i will buy a nicer house with a real affordable mortgage at a much lower price.

Screw realtors. will NOT use a realtor when i buy.

 
At 12:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Suck off realtors!

I did not listen to your scum and now am in a great position to buy a house a a much more affordable price with a real loan not some toxic bloated liar loan.

This is what the "dream" is all about not making you scum rich off the backs of hard working folks.

I WILL NOT USE A REALOTR WHEN I BUY! FU!

 
At 12:39 PM, Blogger JuliusCleaver said...

Pegasus: Instead of copying and pasting what I state, come up with some facts. Otherwise you look like a moron.

 
At 1:36 PM, Blogger Pegasus said...

Juliebeaver...This site is FILLED with those facts. Pull your head out, open your eyes and read.

 
At 3:27 PM, Anonymous Lee Scott said...

Man, I am so glad I found this blog. I've been reading Lereah's comments in the media for years and wondering why no one was calling him out for his ridiculous pseudo-economics. He's your typical bush league Chamber of Commerce booster, except he's not just touting the rosy future of his industry at the local VFW bar or in some small-town newspaper, he's being quoted as a respected expert in national media. Worse, he always is given the last word in order to contradict the real economists who've been pointing to a housing bubble for years. Thanks for shining some light on this man, a mediocre shill if there ever was one. The mainstream media has had their chance and they've blown it.

 
At 3:35 PM, Blogger JuliusCleaver said...

The majority of homeowners and the American public have never been better off. This site is for LOSERS!

 
At 1:03 AM, Blogger Keeping Away From The Joneses said...

On one hand, I'm shocked that Lereah is admitting a slide. This goes against everything he's said in the past. If Lereah is predicting a slide, I'd buy canned food and shotgun shells.

JuliusCleaver: You've been slamming others and spouting off, but you still haven't come up with a place where housing is still doing well. Support your facts or go home and cry into the bricks of your rapidly depreciating home.

 
At 2:27 AM, Blogger Richard M. Johnston, Realtor said...

Anonymous,

Don't you have any respect for yourself? Why do you blame Realtors for the supply and demand of the marketplace.

If your overweight, do you blame McDonald's? Nobody forces you to buy a home, its a decision you make.

Also, maybe you should start pointing your finger to the mortgage industry who made the money available. After all, if money was not ready available, there would be less homebuyers, more inventory, and the housing market would not have gone up so high.

 
At 2:32 AM, Blogger Richard M. Johnston, Realtor said...

Anonymous,

I hope a Realtor double pops your next home purchase.

 
At 8:42 AM, Blogger David Saluk said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 8:44 AM, Blogger David Saluk said...

The real estate market has no naysayers. That's why this blog is a good thing. There are no real estate bears, only bulls, as you cannot short real estate or invest in the downside of it.

Therefore, David Lereah's assertions have no antithesis. This blog provides a much needed service to people.

 
At 8:54 AM, Blogger Corey said...

Bernanke tells congress housing issue "substantial." More at http://infohype.blogspot.com

 
At 12:09 PM, Blogger JuliusCleaver said...

I've sold two homes in the last 14 months and cleared over $500,000. $250,000 tax free on my personal residence. I did a tax free Starker on the first property and bought a house across the street from a beautiful ocean front area. I'm crying all right. OUCH! That doesn't hurt at all. What a bunch of LOSERS!

 
At 1:39 PM, Blogger kbr7171 said...

It won't postpone the recovery but will slow it?

If you slowed your speed on the way to grandma's house wouldn't you be postponing your arrival?

What a jackass!!!

 
At 1:53 AM, Anonymous Lee Scott said...

JuliusCleaver... Your story of making huge profits on your real estate investments may be true, but its exactly these sort of stories (without ever any mention of the risks involved) that have led millions of people to believe that the key to the good life is just to buy high-priced real estate and then flip it for even higher prices. It's the recipe for a national asset bubble, which is what we're seeing. You may be being honest about your own profits, but many of the people who've been spreading stories like yours have a vested interest in seeing the market continue to climb, i.e. real estate agents, mortgage brokers, or just mom and pop investors hoping for a bigger fool who will buy their highly-leveraged properties.

 
At 5:45 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

JuliusCleaver said...
The majority of homeowners and the American public have never been better off. This site is for LOSERS!

BS. You just are a sourpuss realtor who is now sucking wind. FU I will NEVER use a POS realtor when I buy a house.

You are the scum. I know a few friends who listened to scum to get in or be priced out. Well now they are Friggen sweating bullets everyday if they can make the mtg payment each month.

IS THAT WHAT THE SO CALLED DREAM IS ALL ABOUT? LINING SCUMBAGS POCKETS.

I WILL NEVER USE A SCUM REALTOR TO BUYH A HOUSE. I SAW WHAT THEY DID TO SOME OF MY FRIENDS LIVES.THEY LOSE SLEEP EVERY NIGHT AND I SLEEP WELL. I TRIED TO TELL'EM NOT TO BUY, BUT THEY DID NOT LISTEN AND LISTENED TO THE SCUM.

THANKFULLY BLOGS LIKE THIS EXIST TO GIVE US THE FACTS.

 
At 6:53 AM, Blogger JuliusCleaver said...

Real estate has always been a long term investment. Flippers and other are nothing more than the real estate equivalent of day traders in stocks, the majority of whom lost their shirts. Long term investors in real estate who have chosen wisely have always made money. It's not for the novice except as a long term purchase. I never buy anything with a short term horizon and anyone can match my results with a long term view. Looking at the real estate market and dismissing it at any point in history has always proven to be a mistake. I heard the same pessimistic comments in the 70's, 80's, 90's and after the stock market meltdown. I have continued to buy. Sitting on the sidelines may save you a few bucks in the short run but the average person can make money in real estate. By the way, besides the two houses I sold I have 5 other properties. They all make money and two years from now I am going to sell the one I just moved into and make another $250,000 tax free. Sorry, those are the facts. I also have a combined equity of 800,000 in the other properties. Was it easy? No. Money is earned, and real estate is not different, except for the paychecks. They tend to be quite large. By the way I also invested in gold over the years. That has also gone up a lot. Is it a bubble? I doubt it.

 
At 7:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is not the time to buy real estate it is to expensive and not affordable to buy.

If the only way i can afford a house is use a toxic loan I say FORGET IT. That's not a dream but a nightmare scenario.

THE PRICE OF HOUSES ARE JUST TO DAMN EXPENSIVE AND WILL COME DOWN SO THE AVG PERSON CAN AFFORD IT.

 
At 7:34 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

" heard the same pessimistic comments in the 70's, 80's, 90's and after the stock market meltdown."

yOU FAIL TO MENTION BIG MOUTH LOSER THAT REAL ESTATE WAS PRICED AT 2-3 TIMES INCOMES THEN NOW IT IS 6-8 TIMES IN HIHG PRICED AREAS.

IT'S A BAD TIME TO BUY IF YOU CAN EVEN AFFORD IT.

 
At 7:41 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

My parents bought their second house in 1973 for $50,000 and father made about $30,000 at the time. it is a plain house 4 bedroom 2 bath. Nothing special and it is about 45+ years old.When they bid on the house you needed to put down 20% and thye were competing against any stupid buyers with no money down losers. Same houses based on so called comps is priced at about 800,000. I doubt he can get it now.
lets say someone makes about 100,000, that's 8 times income. Prices for real estate are way overpriced for even the person that makes way more than the avg person.

 
At 10:34 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I ask everyone on this board to join me and NOT USE A REALTOR WHEN YOU BUY A HOUSE!

Send them a message that this behavior will never be tolerated again.

 
At 10:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sorry, those are the facts.

Umm yeah. I understand completely. Personally when I shit, it rains dollars. I can't explain it. Every morning I make tons of money.

My question though is unrelated. Why do Lance and juliuscleaver never use paragraphs. Why is it so hard for these two to formulate their thoughts?

 
At 10:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I've sold two homes in the last 14 months and cleared over $500,000. $250,000 tax free on my personal residence. I did a tax free Starker on the first property and bought a house across the street from a beautiful ocean front area. I'm crying all right. OUCH! That doesn't hurt at all. What a bunch of LOSERS!

Ok. Why are you here?

 
At 12:41 PM, Blogger JuliusCleaver said...

Just pointing out that you can make money in real estate. If you don't believe it, fine. I don't care. I've also made money in commodities and stocks, although not as much. Real estate has a lot going for it which explains why it became hot. Is it overpriced? I see some deals out there and I buy selectively. No one makes anyone do anything in this world, at least if it's legal. Which brings up this question? What are you losers whining about?

 
At 7:26 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just pointing out that you can make money in real estate. If you don't believe it, fine. I don't care.

Hmmm. Seems you do care. If you didn't care you wouldn't be here.

I've also made money in commodities and stocks, although not as much. Real estate has a lot going for it which explains why it became hot. Is it overpriced? I see some deals out there and I buy selectively. No one makes anyone do anything in this world, at least if it's legal.

(Irrelevant rambling ignored)

Which brings up this question? What are you losers whining about?

We are of the opinion that housing is way overpriced and a large correction is due. That is the reason that brings us to these blogs to share our opinion. If you don't agree with us post logical arguments as to why we shouldn't believe this.

By resorting to calling us losers it seems you are grumpy about something. Tell us again, why are you here? Is it really because you made a lot of money on real estate?

 
At 5:08 AM, Blogger JuliusCleaver said...

Let's see the facts. Whether I made money or not is irrelevant to anyone else. Just pointing out you can be successful at anything if you have a positive attitude. I don't see that here. Negatives and negative attitudes make it hard to see the truth. That's about it. The real question is why do people feel the world is coming to an end when, in fact, we all know it isn't.

 
At 7:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Let's see the facts.

Sure I'm all for it.

Whether I made money or not is irrelevant to anyone else.

You brought it up.

Just pointing out you can be successful at anything if you have a positive attitude. I don't see that here. Negatives and negative attitudes make it hard to see the truth. That's about it. The real question is why do people feel the world is coming to an end when, in fact, we all know it isn't.

What are the facts again?

 
At 10:13 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"World is coming to an end."

Typical real estate propaganda..

Real estate is overvalued big time vs any metric you want to use for the avg american family.

 
At 6:19 PM, Blogger Freudian Slip said...

I wonder where the market will be two years from now?
Matt

 
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