Lereah 'It appears we've hit bottom' Again!

The NAR's November existing homes sales were released on December 28, 2006. One day later Mr. Lereah declares:

"It appears we've hit bottom, the price drops are necessary to stir sales. It is working." (Globe and Mail Dec 29th 06)

This is not the first time Mr. Lereah has thought that now is the bottom. On September 25th, 2006 Mr. Lereah said this:

"We've been anticipating a price correction and now it's here. The price drop has stopped the bleeding for housing sales. We think the housing market has now hit bottom."

But wait it gets much better. On May 25, 2006 Mr. Lereah uttered:

"This may be the bottom. It appears May is a little better."

When did we hit bottom? According to Lereah it keeps on moving. Mr. Lereah cannot be trusted. He just spews words to the public through the mainstream media. He is a paid shill. Don't trust him. Don't listen to him. This guy should be fully discredited by now.

David Lereah Watch Mentioned in The Wall Street Journal

In today's Wall Street Journal in an article titled 'Renters Gloat Over Housing Slump,' the David Lereah Watch Blog was mentioned and I was interviewed.

David Jackson, a 26-year-old information-technology specialist, has been railing against the housing industry for two years -- ever since he made a vain attempt to find an affordable town house or condo in Silver Spring, Md. Unable to understand why prices were so high, he began researching the real-estate market and, he says, "came to the conclusion that there was a massive housing bubble." So Mr. Jackson decided to remain a renter. He pays $645 a month for part of a townhouse.

Now that the housing market is slumping, "I feel vindicated," Mr. Jackson says. "But I'm not looking forward to the coming recession." He believes that the housing slowdown and the effects of "a mountain of debt" on consumers will pull the entire economy into a slump.

Mr. Jackson blames what he calls "the housing industrial complex" in general and Mr. Lereah, the Realtors' economist, in particular. Since last year, Mr. Jackson has maintained a blog (davidlereahwatch.blogspot.com) devoted entirely to vilifying Mr. Lereah.

The blog recently offered a $75 cash prize for an essay containing "the most scathing criticism" of Mr. Lereah. Sample submission: "Dr. Lereah is a lying snake with the ethics of a dope-dealing pimp."

Mr. Lereah says he doesn't object to the blog. "There are people who believe it's the end of the world" for housing, he says. "They blame me for being positive."

Mr. Lereah resorts to putting words in my mouth when he says, in reference to my blog, that "There are people who believe it's the end of the world" for housing. I have never claimed it is the end of the world for housing. I claimed that from peak the "Prices declines in the bubble markets are very likely to vary between 20% - 65 in real dollars."

By putting words in my mouth, Mr. Lereah, attempts to make me out as a housing extremist. He uses a straw man (Fallacy Of Extension) argument. Mr. Lereah cannot be trusted because of his history of deception and wrong predictions.

David Lereah's Most Corrupt, Foolish and Ridiculous Quotes

"If you paid your mortgage off, it means you probably did not manage your funds efficiently over the years," said David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors and author of "Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?" "It's as if you had 500,000 dollar bills stuffed in your mattress."

He called it "very unsophisticated." (Los Angeles Times Aug 28th, 2005)

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"We're going to drop significantly, but it's not a balloon bursting," Lereah says. "This is a soft landing for the housing markets." (Business Week May 23rd, 2006)

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"...housing activity will remain healthy for some time to come." - David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, October 28, 2005

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“The continuing shortages of housing inventory are driving the price gains. There is no evidence of bubbles popping.” - David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, August 2005

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"We are really on track for a soft landing. There are no balloons popping.” - David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, December 2005

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Please post Your own favorite Lereah Quotes. [ Hat Tip to Keith from Housing Panic for suggesting this post and Surving The Crash Blog ]

Lereah Responds to 'Why are people so skeptical of you?'

Diana Olick, of CNBC, in today's Reality Check Column asks David Lereah 'Why are people so skeptical of you?'. Here read an excerpt from the story!

Still, NAR's chief economist David Lereah gets a lot of flak. He not only gets hate mail, he's got his own hate site: (link). Actually, there are several not-too-savory sites on David. I called him this morning and asked, "Why are people so skeptical of you?" (That wasn't exactly how I phrased it.)

"Because I'm a shill. Look, they're basically saying, "You're the Realtors, you're in it for the money, you have to say the market is going well." What are you going to do?" says Lereah. "When the market is good, we can say no wrong, and now the market's down and they're getting skeptical and they don't believe it. To be quite candid, we all have really good housing models, and all we're doing is putting the data in and
generating the numbers. There's nothing to hide. My members don't get angry at me if I say sales are down 10% this year. I don't get fired."

David Lereah speaks the truth, but he's also one of the best spinners I've ever met, and after 17 years in this business, I've met a lot. David always finds a way to turn a negative number into a positive outlook. The steep fall in sales is a "correction" to him. Falling prices are "healthy for the market." He's got a million of 'em, but guess what, he's also got real numbers.

Diana Olick attacks Lereah as "one of the best spinners" but also writes that he 'speaks the truth.' Are his cheerleading predictions the truth? Are his half truths and deliberate spins truths or clever deceptions?

Lereah needs to be taken to task by the media. Diana Olick's analysis of Lereah is weak. She lacks the sharp crticism that Lereah deserves for his deceptive remarks, his irresponsible cheerleading, and half truths that he regulary provides to the media.

NAR Deleting Criticism of David Lereah on Wikipedia

The NAR is getting more desperate. Someone who is a Wikipedia user sent this information to me:

You'll like this. Someone at a NAR IP address, deleted criticisms of David Lereah from his Wikipedia page, Here are the diffs: I restored the deleted material.

Basically, someone from the National association of Realtors deleted from Wikipedia's David Lereah page the part that read:

Lereah has been criticized for encouraging the rise of the United States housing bubble. According to an interview in the Chicago Tribune, "In October 2005 Lereah was busy calling the bubble believers `Chicken Littles.' Many of the predictions espoused by the `Chicken Littles' are fast becoming closer to reality. David Lereah has lost credibility because of his irresponsible cheerleading."[4] Lereah said that he has been forecasting a decline in sales for some time: "For three years, I've said, `This is the year that sales will come down.'"

It is a real low to delete legitimate criticism of Mr. Lereah from Wikipedia. If you type in David Lereah into Google the third hit is this blog. Take that Lereah!

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is an organization that is out to help Realtors receive more money from transactions of housing units. It's stated interest is to help Realtors. They are not here to help the public. They use deception and cheerleading by paid shills like Mr. Lereah to promote their harmful agenda.

David Lereah: Market Stabilizing

David Lereah, the most prominent housing cheerleader recently said in a statement that:

"It's important to focus on where the housing market is now — it appears to be stabilizing, and comparisons with an unsustainable boom mask the fact that home sales remain historically high"

The market is far from stabilizing. The housing boom lasted five years plus in many locations. Why does Lereah think the the housing market will stabilizile after only 1 year, or so, of declines? Historically, housing busts last for many years. Perhaps it is because Mr. Lereah is a paid shill of the housing industrial complex.

David Lereah Attacked on Buzz Saw Miter's Blog

Buzz Saw's Miter Box Blog attacks housing cheerleaders. About David Lereah it is written:

David Lereah, mouthpiece of the NAR. This guy is such an a-hole he has an independent blogger personally dedicated to documenting his inane spew. No list of housing bubble wack jobs could possibly omit this polished turd. Another personality disorder case too. This is the kid you wouldn't let date your sister in high school. Ole Dave never saw a set of statistics he couldn't spin. He can also do an about face faster than a Marine private. Listen to this man's advice at your own peril.

Wow! Quite an assualt on Mr. Lereah.