Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Lereah Blames Declining Sales on 'Weather Disruptions'

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their pending home sales report for January 2007. Nationally the seasonally adjusted index was down 8.9% as compared to January 2006. Hat tip to Paper Money. The pending sales index showed decline in all 4 regions of the county.
  • The Northeast region was down 1.3% as compared to January 2006.
  • The West region was down 7.0% as compared to January 2006.
  • The Midwest region was down 10.8% as compared to January 2006.
  • The South region was down 11.8% as compared to January 2006
The manipulative David 'Paid Shill' Lereah blames the declining sales on the weather.

"We are seeing temporary near-term weather disruptions in much of the country, but there is an underlying pattern of stabilization in the housing market, … As a result of these weather disruptions, it may take a couple months for the picture to fully clarify, but a modest recovery is likely. Housing remains a great long-term investment. The rapid shift in January to frigid air in much of the country had a cooling affect on home shopping that went beyond normal seasonal factors, … Weather disruptions have continued since.”

Lereah is pathetic in trying to blame it on the weather. In fact, I went to NOAA's website and found the following maps showing weather conditions for January.

January 2007 Precipitation in US: Overall about normal

January 2007 Temperature in US: Overall about normal

These weather maps shows temperature and precipitation conditions in the US in January. Overall, for the country the temperature conditions were about normal (with the east coast and Midwest experiencing above normal temps, and the southwest experiencing below normal) and the precipitation was about normal.

Where is Mr. Lereah's evidence for the claim the weather significantly impacted sales? Mr. Lereah is wrongly blaming the weather for the continuing decline of housing sales. Mr. Lereah is getting more desperate as his half truths, spin and deception are further exposed.


At 12:42 PM, Blogger bearmaster said...

Gee, that extra warm weather in the northeast and sales were down? By his logic people have to be in a blizzard or at least digging themselves out of several feet of snow to get in the mood to buy a house!

At 1:17 PM, Blogger MMMan said...

Yeah, chilly 60 degrees here in LA. Oooh! Problem is, no rain. This is normally the rainy season. No excuses not to go home shopping out here... Oh wait. Can't afford anything.

At 1:18 PM, Blogger Bakersfield Bubble said...

Please stop! His mom is going to start crying again. LMAO!

If you are reading this David L - stop lying and this will end!!!

At 1:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

We can't keep painting the same rosy picture of the housing condition. I live in Wisconsin, not California, not Florida, or any of the other trouble spots Lereah says are exceptions. My house has been for sale for 18 months and I've had one offer. My wife and I are hoping for a good spring, but we know better. We don't expect any relief until the Fed cuts interest rates. I think the experts are vastly under estimating the effect housing is going to have on the market by year end. I write in my own blog how I think the housing recession is going to lead to a widespread recession by the end of 2007. http://infohype.blogspot.com/ if you want to check it out.

At 2:02 PM, Blogger ejamie said...

Weather is a joke of an excuse. Once the weather improves and the Y-o-Y sales is still down 10%+ what will be the excuse then?

All the talk of housing bubbles are scaring away buyers? (actually, I think Lereah already used up this excuse)

Martians are stealing away potential buyers?

There is a "bad moon" on the rise?

At 9:18 PM, Blogger Oil Shock said...

Here is a an interesting analogy from Crash Proof by Peter Schiff

Crash Proof

At 11:25 PM, Blogger Gerard said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

At 11:43 PM, Blogger Athena said...

Liareah is a complete tool. What stupida$$ comments. Claims that because David didn't buy during the insane bubble he therefore can't be smart enough to point out that Liareah is a duma$$? David isn't in debt up to his eyeballs. He is clearly smarter than the idiots who blindly drank the fool aid and signed their lives away for toxic mortgages.

At 6:04 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

On February 7th I predicted on my blog that the housing recession would cause a ripple effect through the economy and lead to a full blown recession by year end. Today's retail numbers are starting to reflect that.

Another danger: stagflation


At 10:29 AM, Blogger Dr Housing Bubble said...

I knew the weather had something to do with my neighbor's house being listed for $450,000 even it is 600 square feet.

Thanks David for clearing up my confusion.

Dr. Housing Bubble

At 1:29 PM, Blogger David L's Mommy said...

You trash! You people quit calling my David a whore and a liar.

When David was young I used to wash his mouth out with soap and whack his noodle with a wet comb when he lied. If that did not work I would give him an enema. That always worked. I taught him not to lie.

If you young whippersnappers don't quit badmouthing my boy I am going to come down there and kick your f#$%#*&g a@$$$.

At 2:52 PM, Blogger RipeDurian said...

Please please you all are not in the correct frame of mind to absorb the wisdom of this great sage.

1st: You must cross your fingers and toes really hard so that your digits become bloodless and icy cold. This will show piety and humbleness, also it hurts a lot and may make you forget logic.

2nd: You must begin to endlessly "hem and haw" it will become a chant, kind of like "om". Hem and Haw until your very soul is filled with Hem and Haw; Blot out all reason!

Now you are ready for to receive the words of David Liarreah.

At 10:11 AM, Blogger kbr7171 said...

Let's see...Chicago having 50 degree weather until the last week of January. Yeah, that weather sucks...IF YOU'RE FROM SOCAL!!!

At 7:42 PM, Blogger FloridaJoe said...

If he is lying, why did he buy all those investment properties. Wouldnt that indicate that he belived in the market?

At 6:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Guaranteed: Recession caused by housing by year end. Did you see today's retail numbers?


At 9:16 AM, Blogger bearmaster said...

Good grief, the news on foreclosures and lenders and the housing market gets worse by the hour, and David Lereah continues to sing songs from "Mary Poppin". This guy is the Baghdad Bob of the housing market, if ever there was one.

At 10:33 AM, Blogger kbr7171 said...

If you type David Lereah into the search engine on the Realtor.com web site the David Lereah Watch blog is the fourth listing that comes up. I love it!


At 2:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

750 points in two weeks? See my prediction for a economic hard landing on my blog from February. Either I've got a crystal ball or Lereah has no clue what housing can do to an economy . (Thanks for visiting David!)

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