David Lereah Watch

David Lereah's New Video

2010-01-13T10:29:00.000-08:00

David Lereah Launches New Real Estate Blog

2009-12-22T18:42:00.000-08:00

David Lereah launches a new blog called Real Estate Economy Watch.

Seeking Alpha has this to say:

Maybe not… but it appears that Lereah has launched a new venture… let’s call it a blog… with both an ironic title and a decidedly more realistic un-spun outlook.

“Real Estate Economy Watch” is effectively a blog that hosts daily commentary on the housing market, tracks market data, and even specifically follows the course the “housing crisis”.

The title is ironic because it is reminiscent of “David Lereah Watch” a popular blog that relentlessly pounded Lereah during the heyday of the bubble crescendo.

The content, on the other hand, bears an unrecognizable skeptical edge

Solid title. I hope that it also contains solid content.

Article that Mentions Mr. Lereah

2009-07-16T07:39:00.000-07:00

Peak House (HoweStreet.com)

Time Magazine Names Lereah as Part of '25 People to Blame for the Financial Crisis'

2009-02-16T12:01:00.000-08:00

Time Magazine Names David Lereah as Part of '25 People to Blame for the Financial Crisis.' The page on Lereah is here.

When the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, an industry trade group, tells you the housing market is going to keep on chugging forever, you listen with a grain of salt. But Lereah, who held the position through early 2007, did more than issue rosy forecasts. He regularly trumpeted the infallibility of housing as an investment in interviews, on TV and in his 2005 book, Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?. Lereah says he grew concerned about the direction of the market in 2006, but consider his January 2007 statement: "It appears we have established a bottom."

Nice. Well put. He definitely deserves blame for the current financial crisis. It would have been much better if the mainstream media had shined the light of scrutiny on David Lereah back during the height of the bubble when he was cheer leading the bubble and then later denying the bust.

WSJ Digs Deeper into Lereah's Past

2009-01-13T14:59:00.000-08:00

Ina recent article the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) builds upon a recent short interview with Money Magzine in which Lereah admits that 'I spun.' The WSJ article is titled Realtors' Former Top Economist Says Don't Blame the Messenger. Here are some juicy excerpts:

Once one of the world's most-visible housing experts, Mr. Lereah is disconnected from his old life. The former chief economist for the National Association of Realtors says the group's top executives won't return his phone calls. He says he wasn't invited to the association's 100th birthday bash last May

One of my theories is that Lereah was forced to resign from the Realtors' group back in 2007 as he had become fully discredited by that point. [ Mr. Lereah denies this. ]

Mr. Lereah, 55 years old, is one of many prognosticators who won professional accolades during the housing boom, only to see their reputations wither in the bust. Throughout 2005, when home prices in the U.S. hit their fifth consecutive annual record, Mr. Lereah was on television so often his wife, Wendy, would catch him by accident. He flew first-class to meetings and speeches in places like Hawaii and Aspen, Colo., staying in suites at expensive resorts. His bosses awarded him more responsibility. That year, he published his second book, "Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?"

Mr. Lereah continued to make rosy statements amid growing signs of a housing downturn -- like this declaration in January 2007: "It appears we have established a bottom." A few months later, NAR announced that existing-home sales fell 2.6% in April from a month earlier and 10.7% from a year earlier.

It gets juicier.

Mr. Lereah, who says he left NAR voluntarily, says he was pressured by executives to issue optimistic forecasts -- then was left to shoulder the blame when things went sour. "I was there for seven years doing everything they wanted me to," he said, looking out his window to his tree-filled yard in this Washington suburb.

He was the paid shill of the National Association Realtors. The truth comes out.

Mr. Lereah admits to one mistake: believing there would be no national housing crash. "I have to take the blame for that," he says. "I never thought it would be as bad as this."

Bloggers Reacts to Lereah's Admission

2009-01-07T18:55:00.000-08:00

Former NAR Economist David Lereah is a Jackass (Big Picture): "Of all the various parties who contributed to the boom and bust in housing and credit, none have escaped more unscathed than the National Association of Realtors, and their former Baghdad-Bob-in-Chief, David Lerea

The NAR turned a blind eye to fraud amongst realtors in terms of referrals to corrupt appraisers and mortgage brokers. They constantly cheerleaded prices, despite evidence to the contrary. For 3 years, they have been forecasting 2nd half price recoveries, dissuading realism amongst home sellers. They continually spun data, presented misleading commentary, and otherwise engaged in behavior that could only be characterized as sleazy."

David Lereah does a pathetic one-eighty (The Mess That Greenspan Made): "Pathetic, just pathetic...

Leaning against his granite countertops when hundreds of thousands of former homeowners who thought he was telling the truth back in 2005 had to turn their granite countertops over to the bank, the little smirk, the casual tone, the change in outlook, the ham-handed acknowledgment that he was wrong but that he was just doing his job, so, it was understandable that he might be wrong and him taking responsibility for being wrong now is quite a noble thing to do. Pathetic... "

David Lereah finally admits that he was a paid liar, sent out by the evil National Association of realtors to deceive and ruin lives (Soots and Ashes): "The NAR should be banned, broken up under RICO and Robinson-Patman. They are evil, they are directly responsible for the ongoing worldwide financial collapse, they have been exposed, and they should be destroyed."

David Lereah Admits He 'Spun' For the Realtors. Takes Responsibility

2008-12-21T19:58:00.000-08:00

David Lereah, currently working for Reecon Advisors Inc, now admits he "put a positive spin" on the housing market during the boom and bust times. Mr. Lereah goes on to take responsibility for his predictions while he was at the National Association of Realtors. This comes from a recent interview with Money Magazine article titled 'Former real estate bull admits, "I spun"'.

Q: Were you wrong to be so bullish?

A: I worked for an association promoting housing, and it was my job to represent their interests. If you look at my actual forecasts, the numbers were right inline with most forecasts. The difference was that I put a positive spin on it It was easy to do during boom times, harder when times weren’t good. I never thought the whole national real estate market would burst.

Q: Any regrets?

A: I would not have done anything different. But I was a public spokesman writing about housing having a good future. I was wrong. I have to take responsibility for that.

It is a positive that Mr. Lereah is taking partial responsibility for his actions while he was working at the NAR. It all begs the question is Lawrence Yun also engaging in 'positive spin?'

Additional Links:

Realtor Chief Economist: “I spun” (NJ Real Estate Report)

Another Reason Not to Trust So-Called Economic Experts (Seeking Alpha)

Lereah & Others Missing The Housing Bubble

2008-11-17T19:45:00.000-08:00

From a blog at The Atlantic:

Unless I were allowed to rely exclusively on David Lereah (until recently the permabullish economist for the National Association of Realtors) I would be hard put to find one economic expert who had completely missed the housing bubble, much less write an entire article consulting no one else.

David Lereah definitely missed and dismissed the housing bubble. If one goes back to 2004, 2005 or even 2006 there were plenty of economic experts who had completely missed the housing bubble including economists at Harvard the Federal Reserve and at other prominent institutions.

Dean Baker Criticizes Washington Post for Quoting Lereah So Often

2008-10-06T19:06:00.000-07:00

Dean Bake Criticizes Washington Post for Quoting Lereah So Often as an 'Expert' on the housing market.

First, reporters should recognize that people employed by an industry lobby have an ax to grind. They are not neutral observers. This means that it was incredibly irresponsible to have David Lereah, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, as the Post's most widely cited expert on the housing market. Lereah was in the business of selling homes, not helping Post readers understand the economics of housing. The paper's reporters and editors should have known this.

I agree entirely with Dean Baker's criticism of the Washington Post. It should be noted that it was not just the Washington Post, but many others in the media also relied primarily on 'expertise' from paid shills working for the real estate industry's various trade group. These paid shills actively promoted the interests of their employers even when the facts flew in their face.

David Lereah & Mccain

2008-09-22T19:09:00.000-07:00

David Lereah & His Ill Fated Book

2008-09-18T18:13:00.000-07:00

The Wall Street Journal reports on book's whose title's quickly became ridiculous as events unfolded.

"Obviously I would change the title," says David Lereah, the former chief economist of the National Association of Realtors and author of "Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust -- And How You Can Profit From It," published in paperback in February 2006. "There are places in the book where I actually say the boom is not healthy. But people don't read the book, and they just look at the title and they criticize it."

That doesn't sit well with authors, who often blame their publishers when books are overtaken by events. "We argued back and forth," says Mr. Lereah, the real-estate author, who says he didn't want the titles to be so bold. "But you know, I'm a big boy, I agreed to what they told me to do and you've got to live with it," he adds.

Doubleday Business, Mr. Lereah's publisher and a unit of Random House, confirmed that the book's titles were suggested by the publishing team but said that they were based on his reasoning.

"In retrospect, everyone was fooled," says Roger Scholl, editorial director for Doubleday Business. "I would certainly say I was fooled. No one saw what was going to happen with real estate."

Mr. Lereah's book was served up in hardcover in February 2005 with the title "Are You Missing The Real Estate Boom? Why Home Values and Other Real Estate Investments Will Climb Through the End of the Decade -- And How to Profit From Them." That edition sold 12,000 copies.

It was downhill from then. The paperback sold 2,300 copies in 2006 and 250 in 2007, according to Nielsen BookScan. So far this year, it's notched just 20 sales, Nielsen says.

At least his book is now historic memorabilia for the housing bubble.

Glenn Beck Mocks Lereah & Yun

2008-07-31T09:14:00.001-07:00

Glenn Beck mocks the current and former chief economists at the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun & David Lereah for the their history of bad predictions.

He's Baaaaaaaaack!!

2008-05-06T19:22:00.000-07:00

David Lereah is back giving more opinion on real estate on the mainstream media. This time in a Newsweek article. Remember, Lereah was probably the biggest cheerleader for the housing market during the bubble years.

Lereah is infamous for calling the bottom many times. Will he call the bottom once more?

His answer: not yet. "We're not at the bottom," he says. "[People] want it to be near the bottom, but we're not there yet. The leading indicators are still very bad. Pending home sales are still in bad shape. Mortgage applications are low … There's still supply out there in abundance … This thing is going to get worse before it gets better."

Wow! Lereah is actually saying that the housing market will continue to decline. The article continues ".. That's quite a turnabout from the view he articulated in his book, first published in 2005." In his book he wrote that "Today's real estate market is the result of rational decision making based on supply and demand conditions with today's economy, home owners are in no danger of experiencing a widespread fallout of home prices."

So what is David Lereah up to these days, career wise?

It turns out he has recently set up a new firm called Reecon Advisors, which is advising Wall Street firms and institutional investors about the real estate market. "Wall Street has an intense interest in [this], because they're looking for when is the recovery going to come, and at what point does the cycle turn," Lereah told me.

After Lereah's history of grossly wrong predictions, why are Wall Street firms taking advice from him? Anyone? Lerah continues and discusses what he got wrong.

Oops. "You knew there were a couple of [regional] balloons out there, and [I] said you could have a couple of these balloons pop," Lereah says now. "But I didn't think this would turn into an all-out bursting of a balloon for the whole nation." He, like other prognosticators (including Greenspan), points to his lack of understanding of the profound effects that subprime lending was having on housing markets. "[I] just didn't realize the scope, the extent, the magnitude of the loose underwriting—not looking at incomes and wages, just providing so many mortgage loans based on [expected] future price appreciation rather than the creditworthiness of the borrower," Lereah says. "That got so out of hand, and none of us realized the magnitude of it until it was too late."

None of us? There were some who did warn about these issues including by not limited too Dean Baker, Robert Shiller, the Economist, and the housing bubble bloggers. It is simply plain wrong to say no one realized what was happening. It is easy to blame his wrong predictions on the subprime mortgage mess. Lereah is desperately trying to restore his credibility be saying 'well gee no one was correct about this mess, so I'm ok.' Lereah is wrong. Others did realize what was happening and let it be known and did speak up. David Lereah has lost his credibility a long time ago.

This blog, the David Lereah Watch was linked to in the Newsweek article. Thanks for the link. :-)

Here is what others have to say about Lereah's statements in this article:

Where in the World is David Lereah?

2008-03-27T11:04:00.000-07:00

David Lereah no longer works at Move Inc where he was the Executive Vice President. During the time period Lereah worked at Move Inc, their stock price decline sharply. He now works at Reecon Advisors in Washington, DC. For more info see here.

David Lereah was recently featured as an 'expert' on the housing market on a MSNBC piece. One thing Mr. Lereah said was "If the housing market continues to slump, the economy will continue to slump."

Q & A Time with the Blogger

2008-03-05T06:42:00.001-08:00

David Lereah left the National Association of Realtors almost a year ago. What are the plans for this blog?

The blog will continue to operate as documentation of the David Lereah's role in the destructive US housing bubble. Prominent commentators (those who receive significant media attention) need to be monitored by concerned citizens.

Why did you start this blog? Why do you care?

I started this blog for two reasons; economic activism, and because it is enjoyable. I strongly believe that paid shills, like David Lereah need to be taken to task for their half truths, manipulations, wrong predictions, and destructive cheerleading. It was a way to prevent people from buying at or near the top of the housing bubble.

Is there anyone you want to thank?

My fellow housing bubble bloggers who deserve much credit for helping to expose David Lereah. Particularly, Keith from Housing Panic. Keith is a true ally in helping to discredit Mr. Lereah. Also, thanks to all my readers.

What do you have say to those who say Mr. Lereah was just 'doing his job' as a spokesman for the National Association of Realtors?

It doesn't really matter. Mr. Lereah's is still liable for half truths, manipulations, wrong predictions, and destructive cheerleading. The housing bubble was a gross misallocation of capital. It is having negative effects on our economy now and for many years to come. Mr. Lereah led people into irrational decisions. The foreclosure rate is an outgrowth of the housing bubble. Mr. Lereah and others are in part responsible for this travesty.

Do you feel your blog contributed to David Lereah's exit from the Realtors' Association?

Yes. Reality would have discredited this paid shill anyway, but this blog hastened David Lereah's inevitable departure.

Daniel Gross Rips Lereah To Pieces

2007-12-11T06:03:00.000-08:00

In a scathing piece Slate columnist Daniel Gross rips Lereah and his successor Lawrence Yun to pieces. Mr.Gross would be welcomed as a guest columnist for this blog or the Lawrence Yun Watch blog.

But within the fraternity of financial and fiscal forecasters, the seers at the National Association of Realtors—longtime chief economist David Lereah and his successor Lawrence Yun—may be uniquely ill-equipped to deliver sobering forecasts. They work for a trade group whose mission is to buck up the spirits of real-estate brokers. And real-estate brokers—who live to sell, promote, and market—are constitutionally disinclined to hear anything but good news. Indeed, as I noted last summer, Lereah's penchant for putting out positive spin on dismal housing numbers inspired a blog and led critics to dub him the Baghdad Bob of real estate. Lereah has moved on. But Yun has picked up where he left off.

In addition to claiming that the sun is shining brilliantly even as rain pours down from the heavens in a mighty stream, Lereah and Yun have also hazarded optimistic, educated guesses about the future. In February 2005, Lereah published a book that is my candidate for Longest Title Ever: Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?: The Boom Will Not Bust and Why Property Values Will Continue To Climb Through the End of the Decade—And How To Profit From Them. Naturally, the boom busted soon after publication, and property values began to descend.

Thanks for the mention of this blog. Daniel Gross is right on the money when he writes "David Lereah and his successor Lawrence Yun—may be uniquely ill-equipped to deliver sobering forecasts." It is refreshing to read people in the press call out these paid shills from the NAR.

David Lereah Watch Mentioned in Reuters

2007-10-30T06:10:00.000-07:00

In a story by Reuters titled Realtors keep bright outlook despite cloudy data, this blog was mentioned:

While many economists underestimated the depth of the nation's current housing slump, Lereah critics single him out for maintaining such a high-profile and upbeat appraisal for so long.
"His words harmed ordinary buyers who heard him and thought that the market was bottoming out. He knew better and that is the problem," said David Jackson, a 27-year-old computer programmer who balked at buying a home in 2005 because of ballooning prices in the Washington, D.C., area and came to see Lereah as an emblem of the runaway market. He skewers Lereah on his blog, David Lereah Watch.

Its grand to be quoted and have influence. It is disheartening, that while Lereah was at the National Assocation of Realtors, those who disagreed with his opinion generally had much less media exposure.

David Lereah Says "They Were Wrong Too!"

2007-09-24T11:13:00.000-07:00

David Lereah, the fully discredited, former chief economist of the National Association of Realtors shot back at the housing bears who in his mind were also wrong.

“Even the people that were talking about booms busting, my goodness they were talking about it in 2001 and 2002,” said David Lereah, the former chief economist with the National Association of Realtors. “And they were wrong for four years and they only became right at the end of 2004.” He and his former employer had been criticized for the optimistic forecasts they made during the boom. (NYTimes. September 23rd)

Sure, some of the bears predicted the boom would end much sooner then it did. But, it is also true that many of the bears correctly pointed out that in 2003 some housing markets were already in a a bubble. Just because the bubble continued to grow, does not negate the reality that certain housing markets were already bubblicious.

David Lereah Admits He Was Wrong

2007-08-29T12:24:00.000-07:00

David Lereah, admitted that his predictions were wrong. In a New York Times article:

Perhaps the most prominent housing booster was David Lereah, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors until April. In 2005, he published a book titled, “Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?” In 2006, it was updated and rereleased as “Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust.” This year, Mr. Lereah published a new book, “All Real Estate Is Local.”

In an interview, Mr. Lereah, now an executive at Move Inc., which operates a real estate Web site, acknowledged he had gotten it wrong, saying he did not fully realize how loose lending standards had become and how quickly they would tighten up again this summer. But he argued that many of his critics have also been proved wrong, because they were bearish as early as 2002.

“The bears were bears way too early, and the bulls were bulls too late,” he said. “You need to know when you are straying from fundamentals. It’s hard, when you are in the middle of the storm, to know.”

It is heartening to know that Mr. Lereah now admits that he was wrong. Notice how even though he admits his mistake, he is still busy pointing out that some of the bubbleheads (aka realists) were also wrong.

Lawrence Yun, Lereah's Successor has a Blog Watching Him

2007-06-14T10:31:00.000-07:00

David Lereah's Successor, Lawrence Yun, now has a blog watching him. Good job Keith from Housing Panic for setting this up.

David Lereah's Statements Vs. Performance of Housing Stocks

2007-06-10T06:10:00.000-07:00

Chart courtesy of Investech Research

Lereah: It was My Publisher's Fault

2007-05-16T22:06:00.000-07:00

David Lereah was interviewed by ROBERT SIEGEL of NPR.

ROBERT SIEGEL, host: But to put this in some context, you have been a positive voice for real estate. So much so that a couple of years ago, you published a book in 2005 whose original title was "Are You Missing The Real Estate Boom" .... the subtitle of that book was "Why Home Values and Other Real Estate Investments Will Climb Through the End of the Decade." What went wrong? Where was the point where you stopped seeing real estate values going up through 2010 and something happening to it instead?

Lereah: Great Question! First the boom was Double Day Random House Word that ..

Seigal: that your publisher, you are telling me

Lereah: .. put on the title. It wasn't my title unfortunately. So it was a poor choice of titles.

Siegal: You are not the first person with that excuse in this studio.

Lereah: But if you actually read the book. I say the boom is not good, it cannot sustain itself. I actually redefine boom to be a healthy expansion.

Siegal: Well wait a second. But in the cover of the book you said it would be the "golden age' of real estate.

A most interesting exchange. It is amazing to see the press actually press David Lereah for the his bad relentless cheerleading, his half truths and bad predictions.

Reaction: David Lereah Leaves the NAR

2007-05-16T10:21:00.000-07:00

Across the internet the reaction was mixed to David Lereah's imminent departure from the National Association of Realtors. Reuters started their article with "The economist who prodded investors into the U.S. housing boom and has been skewered by bloggers during the bust is leaving a top real estate trade association, the group said Monday."

I have added my own bolds to the sentances and staements, I found to be the most interesting and or telling.

David Lereah's coworker, Lucien Salvant, said that "David has been an expert in the field, is widely respected and has been an excellent spokesman for NAR."

"Blanche Evans, the editor of Realty Times, an online magazine for real estate professionals, said Lereah's outlook for the market is a reflection of his sunny disposition. "That is part of his personality. He is one of the most bright and energetic people but that does not mean that he's a Pollyanna," said Evans, author of "Bubbles, Booms and Busts: Make Money in ANY Real Estate Market."

Others were critical of Mr. Lereah. They took him to task for his shilling. They were strong critical voices emmintaing from the blogosphere, the media and beyond.

Housing bubble blogger, Marinite wrote "Today is a bitter-sweet day for this blogger. As you may already know, David Lereah, chief "economist" for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), he who has frequently been a target of ridicule and an endless source of entertainment for me, has finally been booted from the NAR. First it was Greenspan and now it's David Lereah to jump ship before the shister hits the fan. In any event, I should think the US real estate industry has breathed a collective sigh of relief as no single person has done more to discredit the REIC than David Lereah IMO."

Andrew Leonard writes that "David Lereah, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, a man who has been mocked many times in How the World Works and elsewhere for his relentless optimism about the housing market, even as it was imploding all around him like a giant Florida sinkhole, is stepping down from his position. (Thanks to Calculated Risk for the tip.)"

On LA Curbed in a post titled Bloggers Dance on Lereah's Grave "Ding Dong the Witch Is Dead. The Wicked Witch of the National Association of Realtors, that is. David Lereah, one of the most despised economists in the blogosphere, at least the small cul-de-sac of the blogosphre consisting of bubble-watching blogs, has stepped down from his position at chief economist at NAR. How despised is he? He's been called a liar, a back-pedaller, a paid shill, and has even inspired his own de-bunking blog, David Lereah Watch. How has the news that he's leaving NAR and joining Move Inc. been received? Says David Lereah Watch: "Soon, Mr. Lereah will be much less quoted in the mainstream press. Mr. Lereah's reign of half truths, manipulations and cheerleading will soon be over." We're sure they wish him all the best in his new venture. And by all the best, we mean complete and total, humiliating, public failure."

In the WSJ Market Beat blog, David Gaffen writes "The ultimate industry cheerleader is moving on. David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, who became known for sunny pronouncements about the housing industry despite the market’s steady decline, will now be at Move.com. The company describes itself as “the media leader for finding, improving, and enjoying your home.” Its founder, Allan Dalton, says Mr. Lereah “has established himself as the ultimate expert for the real-estate industry.” It’s an unverifiable statement, but evidence suggests otherwise…your mileage may vary."

Seth Jayson, from the Motley Fool, who is critical of Mr. Lereah wrote:

I've written over and over again about the housing-market pumping in which National Association of Realtors Chief Economist David Lereah has engaged. His ability to make bad predictions was, to my mind, only surpassed by the magnitude of his bombast, or perhaps his ill timing.
This is a guy who looked at dwindling numbers from the likes of Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE: HOV) and KB Home (NYSE: KBH), saw subprimes melt down at New Century Financial, watched Alt-A get worse for the likes of Indymac (NYSE: NDE) and Motley Fool Income Investor pick Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM), yet consistently told the press that all was well. I still have no idea how self-respecting business journalists anywhere could have parroted his biased misinformation for so long.
For those of us who simultaneously looked forward to and loathed his monthly trade-group propaganda, today is a day of mixed emotions. Apparently, Lereah is moving on to Move (Nasdaq: MOVE). Move runs Internet real estate sites, something I think is a pretty bad business to be in, unless you're The Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and can throw something together that just might up-end the entire apple cart. According to an NAR press release, Lereah will be in charge of a new venture. Note to self: Look at Move and get ready to short.

The The Kingsland Report states that "First, I realize this news is a bit old, but while I was climbing hundreds of stairs in an 1859 lighthouse yesterday some of the best news of day broke that real estate cheerleader extraordonaire, David Lereah, tendered his resignation as Chief Economist of the National Association of Relators. HUZZAH! The David Lereah Watch Blog does a great job summing things up. While it was bad enough that Lereah would constantly be spinning and telling us tall tales about things being so great in real estate, his manufactered reality actually hobbled the members of the NAR - yes, the realtors themselves. Lereah's gleeful assessments of the real estate market, picked up in the national press, led many home-sellers to insist their Realtors list their homes at inflated prices which would just keep them languishing in what were really ailing markets. It won't be soon enough that Lereah moves on to Move Inc. Let's hope the NAR will pick a new public face that will help its Realtors help their customers to make better decisions and not disasterous ones. Of course, there are hundreds of other Lereah like characters out there who will continue to pump, mislead and cheerlead, but Lereah was unusual for the amount of access he had to the media."

On Bankrate's Mortgage Matters blog: "MOVING ON: Among the subculture of housing bubble protagonists, the most reviled figure is David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, and author of the 2005 tome, "Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not
Bust. The bubblemeisters won't have Lereah to kick around anymore. "

Housing Doom declares "Bubbledom, Rejoice!" and goes on to ask "The big question is, do they replace him with a real economist, or another cheerleader? Perhaps Lawrence Yun replaces him, and things will go on as usual."

One commentator on the Housing Doom blog, NVMike, wrote "Lereah became a huge liability for the NAR. He’s the subject of tremendous ridicule all over the Internet - from his prior books (Worst. Timing. Ever!) to his monthly “we’ve hit bottom!” predictions that began a full year ago. The NAR had to get him off the TV and out of the papers. No one believed him anymore. In recent appearances, other guests and even the moderators / interviewers would shake their heads in disbelief at his responses and forecasts. Lereah turned himself into a real-life Joe Isuzu! "

Economic Despair has a superb post on David Lereah's departure.

The story of David Lereah, the NAR's former chief economist, reflects the highs and lows of the US housing bubble. Back in 2004, he was the chief cheerleader for the NAR, talking up housing, and promising everyone the future of eternal price appreciation. His books were bestsellers and as a speaker he was in constant demand.

Like house prices, his economic forecasting gradually departed from fundamentals. However, house prices were the first to begin a correction. As a bubble began to burst, Lereah's forecasts became increasingly absurd. He called the bottom no fewer than four times. As each month produced more and more depressing data on the housing market, his optimism was irrepressible. Each NAR press release protested that the current slowdown was only temporary and that things will improve shortly. However, his credibility began to diminish and this reflected upon his employer, who weren't prepared to look foolish for his sake.

It looks like David Lereah blamed the housing crash on the weather just once too often. The NAR leadership realised that he had to go. While the precise details of his departure are a matter speculation, it is not hard to imagine a gentle conversation where David is asked politely to leave in a media friendly manner.

In some respects, Lereah's departure marks an unprecedented degree of public accountability. In the past, Lereah could safely make his absurd comments without any fear of losing his job. Today however we have the housing bubble bloggers, who unlike the mainstream media, are prepared to question self-interested commentary from pressure groups like the NAR. Lereah and the NAR were held to account for what they said, and where they were found wanting, the bloggers demanded the truth. Ultimately, the bloggers made Lereah a liability for the NAR that his why Lereah was pushed out.

In this regard, three bloggers deserve particular mention; housing panic, the bubblemeter and David Lereah watch. Today is a victory for them and the truth.

Thanks for the praise. Actually, the blogger behind David Lereah Watch is also the same blogger for Bubble Meter.

Housing.com Blog declares that "It's The End Of An Era: Lereah Is Out At NAR!" and goes on to write that "I can't believe it, really. Who will the Realtors possibly get to regale us with tales of how the stars are aligned, how the market has bottomed out, or how unsophisticated it is to pay off your mortgage? I have to give mad kudos to David Lereah Watch for the unrelenting dogging of this most obvious shill for the scam that was the housing bubble. Good riddance to bad rubbish. I'm just amazed he didn't say something like how he wanted to spend more time with his family. ;) "

Thanks so much for the praise. :-)

SOCAL Bubble opines "Discredited David Lereah is leaving the NAR after making blunderous predictions on the future direction of the housing market."

Keith at Housing Panic who has probably been the best ally in th struggle to discredit Mr. Lereah.

The excuse Blanche Evans, Realty Times Deceiver in Chief, gave for TCDL's lies are especially galling, blaming his distortions on his having a "sunny personality". For all I know TCDL is a nice sunny guy. But that doesn't excuse the lies and deception, and doesn't excuse the horrific mess he personally helped create. TCDL helped ruin lives folks. What TCDL did was evil.

And Miss Evans, a note for your reference, REAL economists don't lie, distort and deceive. They use theories and evidence to try to come to understandings and the truth.

FAKE economists, like whoever the NAR employs, are paid liars who manipulate data to fool the American people into thinking it's always a great time to pay a real estate clerk a commission.

Have you no shame?

Meanwhile, nice to see Reuters pick up on David at davidlereahwatch. I'm tellin' ya, the NAR and realtors around the country probably have "how can we silence the bubble blogs" meetings. And they know their days are up, because they can't.

Here's a special HousingPANIC going away message for our old friend, The Corrupt David Lereah (please feel free to add your own HP'ers):

TCDL, we'll sure miss you around here. Yes, you may have been doing the bidding of your evil masters at the NAR these past few years with your lies, deception and spin. And yes, you may have blood on your hands, someone who'll go down in history as enriching himself at the expense of others.

But it sure was one heck of a ride.

David Lereah's days at the NAR are now over. Mr. Lereah's legacy, as cheif economist, at the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will be one of half truths, manipulating facts and figures, and being a paid shill. His prominent position has ended and his influence on the real estate market will be much reduced.

Lereah: "We're in a Real Estate Recession" Etc.

2007-05-06T20:31:00.000-07:00

David Lereah speaking with a reported from the Chicago Tribune had many things to say "We're in a real estate recession." I actually agree with Mr. Lereah! Wow! Lereah stated:

"I'm projecting the first [nationwide] price drop since the Great Depression," he said. "We're going to have negative home prices in 2007."

Is Lereah finally coming clean? Is Lereah really saying things that reflect reality?

In the Chicago Tribune Article the David Lereah Watch was quoted:

"The media regularly turns to him for real estate quotes," said David Jackson, who created the hypercritical David Lereah Watch blog because he believed the economist was churning the housing market. "Lereah tells half-truths and manipulates facts and figures. He cannot be trusted, as he is a paid shill."

In response Lereah shrugged off the criticism stating "I feel confident I did a very good job forecasting and reflected what was happening in the marketplace .If anybody actually took the time to read my book, rather than just comment on the title, I was insistent in it that ... a frenetic boom was unsustainable. I predicted a downturn [would occur] shortly after I wrote it, in 2005,"

"But first he has one more public appearance, at a Realtors' conference in Washington. He warns that his speech will not be cheery."

"I am going to say, look, guys, we all have to face the music," Lereah said. "We strayed from [economic] fundamentals, and we're paying for it. It's not an all-out bust, not a crash in real estate, but it is a recession. This is going to cleanse the markets and in the long term this is what we have needed.

Nonetheless, he said housing's long-term prospects are good. "I am the cheerleader for real estate," he said. "I will always be the cheerleader. I think it's the best investment anybody can make."

"In characteristic cheerleader style he demurred when asked whether he ever felt pressure from within NAR to skew forecasts in a positive direction."

"You'll have to talk to me about that in two or three weeks," Lereah said. "I work for NAR now."

The Blog In Transition

2007-05-02T20:55:00.000-07:00

Within a few weeks, David Lereah will no longer be working for the National Association of Realtors. He will be much less quoted in the mainstream media. What are the plans for this blog?

Posts are expected to be much less often. I would like to follow up and track Mr. Lereah's real estate investments, but this will probably be once every 6 months. If he his quoted by the mainstream press on the housing market, he will be watched on this blog.

The blog will continue to operate as documentation of the destructive housing bubble.

Why did you start this blog? Why do you care?

I started this blog for two reasons; economic activism, and because it is enjoyable. I strongly believe that paid shills, like David Lereah need to be taken to task for their half truths, manipulations, and destructive cheerleading.

Is there anyone you want to thank?

My fellow housing bubble bloggers deserve much credit for helping to expose David Lereah. Particularly, Keith from Housing Panic. Keith is a true ally in helping to discredit Mr. Lereah. Also, thanks to all my readers.

What do you have say to those who say Mr. Lereah was just 'doing his job' as a spokesman for the National Association of Realtors?

It doesn't really matter. Mr. Lereah's is still liable for half truths, fact manipulations, and destructive cheerleading. The housing bubble was a gross misallocation of capitol. It will have negative effects on our economy for many years to come. Mr. Lereah led people into irrational exuberance.

Will you be launching a new blog to track Mr. Lereah's replacement at the NAR?

No. I will be not be launching a new blog to track Mr. Lereah's successor. However, that blog is very much needed. I fully encourage someone to take up the flashlight and shine it brightly.

David Lereah To Leave Realtors and Join Move Inc.

2007-04-30T10:40:00.000-07:00

David Lereah will be leaving the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and joining Move Inc in in mid May. According to a press release from the Realtors:

David Lereah, senior vice president and chief economist of the National Association of Realtors(R) for the past seven years, is joining Move Inc. as executive vice president of a new business entity, effective in mid-May.

Move Inc. operates NAR's official Web site, http://www.realtor.com/ and http://www.move.com/.

Not missing a beat, NAR's executive vice president and CEO, Dale Stinton, announced that:

David is an expert on real estate and the economy, and his stature and expertise enhanced NAR's position as the most credible source on economic and policy issues affecting the housing industry in the United States and abroad. We wish him the greatest success in his new endeavor."

Within a few weeks, David Lereah will no longer be working at the National Association of Realtors. Mr. Lereah has lost credibility during the past few years, as he cheered the housing bubble and then called a 'bottom' at least four times. Was he forced to leave because he lost credibility?

Soon, Mr. Lereah will be much less quoted in the mainstream press. Mr. Lereah's reign of half truths, manipulations and cheerleading will soon be over.

In a Reuters article today "One blog, David Lereah Watch, cites passages from Lereah's books and his encouraging words about the housing market and asks him to "admit he cheerleaded this destructive housing bubble."

Update: Mr. Lereah will stay at the NAR "at least through the mid-year meetings, which end on May 19" according to a NAR spokesman.

Lereah Comments on NARs 2006 Housing Snapshot

2007-04-30T09:26:00.000-07:00

From MarketWatch: "A sharp drop in investment-home sales offset a record number of vacation-home purchases to bring down the overall share of second-home purchases in 2006, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday."

"The share of second-home sales was 36% of all existing and new residential real estate transactions in 2006, down from 40% of all sales in 2005, the group said."

"Vacation-home sales went up 4.7% to a record 1.07 million homes in 2006 from 1.02 million in 2005, driven largely by demographic trends. Meanwhile, investment-home sales dropped 28.9%, falling to 1.65 million homes in 2006 from 2.32 million in 2005, according to the group's annual survey of investment- and vacation-home buyers."

"The share of vacation-homes rose, making up 14% of all home sales, up from 12% in 2005. Of all homes purchased last year, 22% were for investment, down from 28% in 2005. For comparison, primary-residence sales fell 4.1% during the time; in 2006, there were 4.82 million primary home sales, down from 5.02 million in 2005." Commenting on the report Mr. Lereah stated that:

"We expected the drop in investment sales because speculators left the market in 2006, which caused investment sales to fall much faster than the primary market, but the rise in vacation-home sales is based on strong demographic and lifestyle factors, with only modest interest in renting their properties to others"

"The drop in investment prices comes as no surprise, but for vacation-home prices to edge down in a record market is a bit puzzling," Lereah said. "It may result from a large dumping of inventory on the market by speculators, especially in the condo sector, with long-term, second-home buyers taking advantage of the glut and buying at negotiated discounts."

"Anecdotally, part of the drop in the median investment price results from investors shifting away from pricier markets like Florida, Nevada and Arizona, and into affordable locations in New Mexico, Idaho, Utah, Georgia, Tennessee and the Carolina."

Mr. Lereah, how are your investment properties doing?

Excerpt from Lereah's Book March 2005

2007-04-15T14:29:00.000-07:00

" I believe that in years to come historians will see the beginning of the twenty-first century as the "golden age" of real estate. And I want to persuade you to take advantage of this historic opportunity. "

["Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom? Why Home Values and Other Real Estate Investments will Climb Through the End of the Decade-And How To Profit From Them" March 2005, p4]

More Proof David Lereah Has Lost Credibility

2007-04-12T08:56:00.000-07:00

The peak of the housing bubble in the US in general was summer of 2005. David Lereah, the Realtors chief cheerleader recently said that:

“‘In August 2005 we peaked,’ Lereah said. ‘That was the end of the boom. We just went down from there."

True. One of Lereah's book which was published in Febuary 2005 was titled:

'Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?: Why Home Values and Other Real Estate Investments Will Climb Through the End of the Decade -- and How to Profit From Them'

David Lereah should admit he cheerleaded this destructive housing bubble. It is time for Mr. Lereah to be remorseful and not backpedal. This guy has lost credibility. The media should be much more skeptical and critical of Lereah.

Two Reviews on Amazon For David Lereah's New Book

2007-04-11T21:38:00.000-07:00

The first review of David Lereah's new book, All Real Estate is Local, is glowing. The reviewer gives it 4 of 5 stars.

A very useful read. Mr. Lereah provides excellent insights about real estate investing, whether it's labeled "buyer" or "seller" market. In very readable style, he outlines the factors we all should look into, when buying our own home or considering other real estate investment. Former US House Speaker Tip O'Neill was right on the money about politics being local...and David Lereah is on the money (for all of us) about the LOCAL factors affecting real estate.

But who is the reviewer? Robert N Authier. A Google search for Robert N Authier reveals that he is a Realtor. A fellow housing cheerleader supporting thier leader. Bravo!

The next review attacks the book and David Lereah stating that:

Mr. Lereah likes to publish books. Tragically, they have almost comedic timing. He wrote a book on how to get rich in tech stocks that came out in 2000, when the tech stock market collapsed. His previous book was about how the housing market would continue to grow at double digit rates through the end of the decade. He then re-released it when it was obvious that there was a bubble with a new title on why the real estate bubble won't bust. That brings us to his latest book All Real Estate is Local. Now he tries to backpedal off of his hyping of the bubble areas and start bombastically declaring that even though the national trend of inflating housing prices across the country has stalled and is reversing, you can still find good deals if you start focusing on tinier and tinier sections of housing, down to individual neighborhoods. The cheap, easy money that fueled the boom is on the way out, and it will be harder and harder to qualify for loans and interest rates are likely to keep rising. The net result is stagnant or deflationary housing prices.

He's been wrong in his previous two books, and now he's swinging for the fences at a ball that's in the dirt for his third. Instead of saying "Buy everything!" like his last books, now he's saying "Move your buying to an area that isn't already wildly overpriced!" So write those checks for investment homes in Topeka, Kansas everybody!

If you want a book to educate you about real estate investing, this isn't it. If you want a book that tries to convince you to stuff money into some realtor's pocket, then this is the book for you. If you just want to buy yourself a home, forget all the real estate books and calculate your renting costs vs. your owning costs, and then make an informed decision as to when you want to purchase

Good job attacking Mr. Lereah and his books. This blog will continue monitoring the reviews of Lereah's latest book.

Dissecting David Lereah's Book

2007-04-06T13:04:00.000-07:00

Ready to dissect David Lereah's real estate book circa 2005.

David Lereah's New Book is Released

2007-04-05T07:10:00.000-07:00

David Lereah has done it again. He has written yet another book titled 'All Real Estate is Local: Why Understanding the Housing Trends in Your Area Is Essential to Building Wealth.' The book was just released on April 3rd, 2007. It should have been released two days earlier.

From the Publisher:

Book Description

When real estate booms nationally, there are hundreds of cities and regions that lag behind. Similarly, when the market slows or flattens, countless states and neighborhoods begin to boom. As Lereah makes clear, the most important factor in buying or selling a home is the local market conditions. Lereah shows readers how to:

Evaluate the values of homes in one's own town or county
Determine whether property values in your targeted neighborhood are on the rise
Assess the market conditions in locations when buying a vacation or second home
Learn how to identify markets that are overvalued or fully valued, and those that promise to appreciate more quickly in the future
Understand the local economic developments that can affect oneÂs investment in the future

There are countless books offering advice on making money in real estate. This is the first one to explain why knowing the ins and outs of your local region is essential to deciding when, and where, to buy.

-------------------------------

Mr. Lereah tells half truths and manipulates facts and figures. He cannot be trusted as he is a paid shill. Don't buy his book. Figure out ways to mock his book!

April Fool's David Lereah Spoof

2007-04-01T08:35:00.000-07:00

Over at Housing Panic there is a fabulous April Fool's piece which revolves around David Lereah

Lereah on Foreclosure Properties

2007-03-31T21:12:00.000-07:00

"There are some good buying opportunities," says David Lereah, the NAR's chief economist. "But don't repeat the mistakes of the foreclosed borrowers." (USAToday 3/29/07)

Is Bernanke Parroting Lereah?

2007-03-28T21:05:00.000-07:00

David 'the paid shill' Lereah has been busy cheerleading the housing market and downplaying any risks. A few weeks back Lereah stated:

"Lending problems in our nation's subprime marketplace are building, which could inhibit future housing activity and further dampen our forecast. Even so, these problems are likely to be contained and not spill over into the prime mortgage market."

Just a week or so later Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chairman, in a statement before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, he stated:

At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained. In particular, mortgages to prime borrowers and fixed-rate mortgages to all classes of borrowers continue to perform well, with low rates of delinquency. We will continue to monitor this situation closely.

Is our Federal Reserve chairman just taking the National Association of Realtors' talking points and incorporating them into his economic outlook?

Lereah on Suprime Tightening

2007-03-24T21:41:00.000-07:00

"David Lereah, chief economist for the national association, believes demand for homes could be cut by 150,000 to 200,000 annually this year and 2008."

"Our view is that the tightening in the subprime market will have a negative impact on home sales," Lereah said in a statement. "It probably won't postpone the recovery (in housing), but it will slow it." (LA Daily News, March 23, 07)

David Lereah's Statements Contradict Each Other

2007-03-22T12:31:00.000-07:00

David 'the paid shill' Lereah is at it again, contradicting himself. Recently, Mr. Lereah said:

"It was very clear that the standards had deteriorated," said David A. Lereah, senior vice president and chief economist of the National Assn. of Realtors. "I'm not a lender though. I kept on saying to myself — I guess they know what they're doing." (LATimes, March 22, 07)

Did David Lereah really think that the lenders knew 'what they're doing?' Did he really trust them with lending standards? In a recent interview with Fortune magazine Mr. Lereah was asked "What about the problems in the subprime market?" Lereah responded by saying:

I was giving a speech in Atlanta about two years ago. During the question and answer period, someone asked me something about interest-only loans. I said, they're kind of dangerous and you have to be careful. Someone rose their hand and said, Did you know that in Atlanta, the percentage of interest-only loans in 2005 was 40 percent of the market? Atlanta didn't even have a boom. That's when I knew we were in trouble.

Which one is it Mr. Lereah? Did you or did you not trust the lenders with lending standards during the past few years? Or do you say whatever is convenient at the time, to sustain your credibility and help the Realtors? Are you just contradicting yourself (confused) or are you lying?

David Lereah Watch Tops Google Search

2007-03-16T11:48:00.000-07:00

The David Lereah Watch Blog has made it to #1 on a Google search for 'David Lereah'. I'm thrilled. :-)

David Lereah Watch is #1 and #2. The third spot goes to Wikipedia. Finally, #4 is David Lereah's Bio on Realtor's Site. Take that David Lereah!

Lereah Calls Bottom For At Least The Fourth Time

2007-03-13T17:32:00.000-07:00

David 'Paid Shill' Lereah is now claiming the the housing market is doing a whole lot of scratching and that housing had hit bottom.

"Sales have hovered for the last four months, scratching bottom and then coming up, scratching bottom and coming up again. We are comfortable this is now the bottom"

Due to all this scratching going on, perhaps, David Lereah is confused and has falsely called the bottom multiple times. This was his fourth time calling bottom (that I am aware of). Mr. Lereah has called the bottom on the following dates:

May 25, 06: "This may be the bottom. It appears May is a little better." (Real Estate Journal)
September 25, 06: "We've been anticipating a price correction and now it's here. The price drop has stopped the bleeding for housing sales. We think the housing market has now hit bottom." (Bloomberg)
Dec 29, 06: "It appears we've hit bottom, the price drops are necessary to stir sales. It is working." (Globe and Mail )

Don't be fooled by David Lereah as he is part of the Real Estate Industrial Complex (REIC). Lereah cannot be trusted. Mr. Lereah is a paid shill who is fully discredited.

Lereah: Most of Country Will be Growing by June

2007-03-13T17:27:00.000-07:00

"I expect prices and sales to be modestly growing by June in most of the country," said David Lereah, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors and perhaps the most bullish housing economist. "But we'll have to go into 2008, maybe even 2009 before we get even close to the peaks we saw in late 2005 or early 2006." (CNN Money, March 8th, 2007)

Lereah Blames Declining Sales on 'Weather Disruptions'

2007-03-06T09:17:00.000-08:00

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their pending home sales report for January 2007. Nationally the seasonally adjusted index was down 8.9% as compared to January 2006. Hat tip to Paper Money. The pending sales index showed decline in all 4 regions of the county.

The Northeast region was down 1.3% as compared to January 2006.
The West region was down 7.0% as compared to January 2006.
The Midwest region was down 10.8% as compared to January 2006.
The South region was down 11.8% as compared to January 2006

The manipulative David 'Paid Shill' Lereah blames the declining sales on the weather.

"We are seeing temporary near-term weather disruptions in much of the country, but there is an underlying pattern of stabilization in the housing market, … As a result of these weather disruptions, it may take a couple months for the picture to fully clarify, but a modest recovery is likely. Housing remains a great long-term investment. The rapid shift in January to frigid air in much of the country had a cooling affect on home shopping that went beyond normal seasonal factors, … Weather disruptions have continued since.”

Lereah is pathetic in trying to blame it on the weather. In fact, I went to NOAA's website and found the following maps showing weather conditions for January.

January 2007 Precipitation in US: Overall about normal

January 2007 Temperature in US: Overall about normal

These weather maps shows temperature and precipitation conditions in the US in January. Overall, for the country the temperature conditions were about normal (with the east coast and Midwest experiencing above normal temps, and the southwest experiencing below normal) and the precipitation was about normal.

Where is Mr. Lereah's evidence for the claim the weather significantly impacted sales? Mr. Lereah is wrongly blaming the weather for the continuing decline of housing sales. Mr. Lereah is getting more desperate as his half truths, spin and deception are further exposed.

Fellow Bloggers Support David Lereah Watch

2007-03-05T09:26:00.000-08:00

Some of my fellow bloggers have come to my aid against David Lereah. Socal Housing Bubble writes:

To me, the only thing that’ s wierd is that he hasn’t taken on any of the other detractors… who have much worse to say, are more read, and more specific to his stupidity. That he had to bring his mommy into the picture makes me wonder if he’s willing to fight his own battles.

That David Lereah is a baldface liar, or unbelievably incompetent is never questioned in the mainstream media. That some 26 year old has to ask the question (and it attains national media attention) means that it has struck a nerve… David, you have finally made it… Congratulations.

Furthermore, Andrew Leonard from How The World Works at Salon magazine writes:

Now comes a Fortune interview that surprisingly reveals Lereah to have had doubts and fears about the housing market as far back as two years ago (when he says he knew the subprime market was "in trouble"). On a normal day, we would make some effort to track down Lereah's public statements at the time and see if he shared any of that insight with the general public. But this is no normal day. In the interview, David Lereah takes a shot at blogger David Jackson, Lereah's most relentless critic in the blogosphere. As a part-time housing bubble blogger, How the World Works must stand in solidarity. (Thanks to the Housing Bubble Blog for the Fortune link.)

Thanks for the massive complement when you called me 'Lereah's most relentless critic in the blogosphere.' I am humbled.

Keith, over at Housing Panic, strikes hard at The Corrupt David Lereah, TCDL, as he calls him.

Here's the latest from The Corrupt David Lereah in Fortune magazine. This guy contradicts himself so much in the same interview, he must be either bipolar or crazy. Absolutely bizarre. I think he needs an intervention.

To David over at the davidlereahwatch and my fellow bubble bloggers - let's turn the heat up on this guy even more. The MSM must stop picking up this guy's BS as truth, he must be called out for what he is, and the NAR must be exposed.

The people of America (and the MSM) should see TCDL as the discredited hack that he is. "Lereah" should go down in American history as yet another Charles Ponzi, yet another Henry Blodgett, yet another snake oil salesman spreading lies and destruction for profit. And the perfect personification for a corrupt REIC and a pathetic and paranoid National Association of Realtors.

A HOUSINGPANIC MESSAGE TO THE CORRUPT DAVID LEREAH:

MR. LEREAH, YOU'RE A LIAR, A HACK AND A SHILL. YOU AND YOUR MASTERS AT THE NAR ARE HURTING AMERICA. FAMILIES ARE LOSING THEIR HOMES BECAUSE OF YOUR LIES, CHEERLEADING AND DISTORTION. MILLIONS WILL GO UNEMPLOYED BECAUSE OF YOUR BUBBLE.

HAVE YOU NO SHAME?

Thanks to my fellow bloggers, and others, for helping me criticise David 'Paid Shill' Lereah. He deserves the harsh criticism he has received from the blogosphere. David Lereah you are under increased scrutiny.

David Lereah Attacks David Lereah Watch

2007-03-01T21:35:00.000-08:00

In an interview with Fortune Magazine, Mr. Lereah, attacked this blog after being asked about it.

Fortune: You've been accused by the blog David Lereah Watch of being too bullish. What's it like to have an online antagonist?

Lereah: At first I was kind of laughing. And now, it's enough already. This is a 26-year old that could not afford a townhouse and blamed it on the boom. And then he said, Who's talking about the boom and my name kept coming up. So I became Satan to him.

The worst was that my mother read one of those things, and she almost started crying. And I had to say, Mom, you have to have thick skin. I'm going to be in the public and make statements about real estate, and if someone doesn't like what I'm saying, they have every right to say something opposing me.

Now should they go so far as to call me Satan? I don't understand where that's coming from. That's just weird.

No, Mr. Lereah is not Satan. Mr. Lereah exaggerates things. I never called him Satan. I never said he was evil. This blog is actually pretty tame when it comes to crtitizing Mr. Lereah. Check the archives.

Secondly, I was interested in buying a condo or a townhouse [as noted in the WSJ story].

Mr. Lereah has been hemming and hawing

2007-02-27T12:11:00.001-08:00

"For the last several months I have been hemming and hawing on whether we have reached bottom," said David Lereah, chief economist for the Realtors. He said that the January report was an encouraging sign that the bottom for sales activity was reached last September with sales expected to stabilize this year. (Source: The Times and Democrat)

David Lereah's Condo Investment Goes Bust

2007-02-19T11:42:00.000-08:00

David Lereah has invested in multiple condos in the Washington, DC area as well as in some undisclosed(s) location in bubblicious Florida. One of his investment properties is located at
4551 Strutfield Ln, Alexandria, VA.

Alexandria, VA is an inner suburb of Washington, DC. Mr. Lereah's condo unit is located at the PALAZZO AT PARK CENTER. Mr. Lereah does not live there. This is an investment property and not his primary residence.

He bought the 1br 1bth condo on April 1st, 2005 (April Fools day, How appropriate!) for $276,900 and includes 1 parking spot. It is a recently built garden style building. The condo units has 726 sq. feet. (Source: Alexandria, VA Real Estate Assessments Database)

Here is the price chronology of the condo unit:

2005: Property Assessment: 245,700
April 2005: David Lereah Buys Unit for 276,900
2006: Property Assessment: 271,500
2007: Property Assessment: 248,977

Under Virginia law, property assessment are valued to be at "100 percent of fair market value. The Virginia Supreme Court has provided the following definition of fair market value: The fair market value of a property is the price which it will bring when it is offered for sale by one who desires, but is not obliged, to sell it, and is bought by one who is under no necessity of having it."

Mr. Lereah bought the condo unit for $276,900 in April 2005. In 2007 the condo was assessed at $248,977 which is a loss of $27,923. This represents a price decline of 10% (nominal dollars).

It is fitting to see the drop in value of David Lereah's Alexandria condo. He bought just a few months away from the peak bubble in the Washington, DC area. Mr. Lereah clearly made a bad investment decision.

Zillow: David Lereah's House Declining In Value

2007-02-15T09:13:00.000-08:00

David Lereah's primary residence, like other houses in the Washington, DC metro area, is losing value. According to Zillow the peak price for Mr. Lereah's house was 959K in June 2006. Since then the price has declined about 11% to an estimated (Zestimate) price of 852K.

It is ironic that David Lereah's house is losing value while he is busy declaring the bottom of the housing bubble every few months.

Mr. Lereah lives in a large 5 beds, 5.5 baths, 3,068 sq ft located in the outer suburbs. Mr. Lereah's property tax assessments on this house were $7,520 in 2006.

MarketWatch Slams David Lereah

2007-01-30T12:13:00.000-08:00

MarketWatch slams David Lereah in an article titled 'Realtors' economist stayed sunny all year. In the most excellent article, it is written

There are two universal truths at the National Association of Realtors: 1) It's always a good time to buy or sell a home; and 2) We've seen the worst of the housing market correction.

That is the gospel at the the National Association of Realtors which is desperately trying to keep home sales and home prices high. Lereah is sounding even more pathetic then normal. He recently said:

"With fingers and toes crossed, it appears that we have hit bottom in the existing home market"

Despite Lereah's convoluted body the market will continue to decline in the coming year. David Lereah has lost credibility, it is refreshing to see the mainstream media criticize David 'paid shill' Lereah.

Lereah: 'No Bubble Burst in 2006'

2007-01-25T14:23:00.000-08:00

David Lereah claims that "There was no bubble burst in 2006," Lereah said. "We know the speculative buyers left in 2006," he said.

Prices have adjusted in most metro areas, Lereah said. "It's becoming a buyers' market.

Lereah on the 2007 Housing Market

2007-01-11T17:25:00.000-08:00

The NAR released this information about the housing market in 2007. "David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said annual totals for existing-home sales will be fairly comparable between 2006 and 2007." He said:

“We have to keep in mind that we were still in boom conditions during the first quarter of 2006 with a high sales volume and double-digit price appreciation,” he said. “We are starting 2007 from a relatively low point, so even with a gradual improvement in sales it’ll be pretty much of a wash in terms of annual totals. The good news is that the steady improvement in sales will support price appreciation moving forward.”

These economic predictions were released by the NAR, Mr. Lereah is their chief economist so he is responsible for these numbers:

Existing-home sales for 2006 are expected to come in at 6.50 million, the third highest on record, with a total of 6.42 million seen in 2007. New-home sales in 2006 should tally 1.06 million, the fourth highest on record, with 957,000 projected this year.

Total housing starts for 2006 are likely to be 1.81 million units, with 1.51 million forecast in 2007, which would be the lowest level in a decade. Builders are pulling back on new construction to support prices of remaining inventory.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably rise to 6.7 percent by the fourth quarter of 2007. Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed rate at 6.18 percent – far below earlier consensus forecasts. “The current interest rate environment and housing inventory levels present a window of opportunity for potential buyers,” Lereah said.

The national median existing-home price for all of 2006 is expected to rise 1.1 percent to $222,100, and then gain 1.5 percent this year to $225,300. The median new-home price, after rising only 0.3 percent to $241,600 in 2006, is projected to grow 3.0 percent in 2007 to $248,900.

These predictions are too optomistic and reflects the cheerleading by the segments of the housing industrial complex.

Lereah 'It appears we've hit bottom' Again!

2006-12-29T10:04:00.000-08:00

The NAR's November existing homes sales were released on December 28, 2006. One day later Mr. Lereah declares:

"It appears we've hit bottom, the price drops are necessary to stir sales. It is working." (Globe and Mail Dec 29th 06)

This is not the first time Mr. Lereah has thought that now is the bottom. On September 25th, 2006 Mr. Lereah said this:

"We've been anticipating a price correction and now it's here. The price drop has stopped the bleeding for housing sales. We think the housing market has now hit bottom."

But wait it gets much better. On May 25, 2006 Mr. Lereah uttered:

"This may be the bottom. It appears May is a little better."

When did we hit bottom? According to Lereah it keeps on moving. Mr. Lereah cannot be trusted. He just spews words to the public through the mainstream media. He is a paid shill. Don't trust him. Don't listen to him. This guy should be fully discredited by now.

David Lereah Watch Mentioned in The Wall Street Journal

2006-12-26T10:58:00.000-08:00

In today's Wall Street Journal in an article titled 'Renters Gloat Over Housing Slump,' the David Lereah Watch Blog was mentioned and I was interviewed.

David Jackson, a 26-year-old information-technology specialist, has been railing against the housing industry for two years -- ever since he made a vain attempt to find an affordable town house or condo in Silver Spring, Md. Unable to understand why prices were so high, he began researching the real-estate market and, he says, "came to the conclusion that there was a massive housing bubble." So Mr. Jackson decided to remain a renter. He pays $645 a month for part of a townhouse.

Now that the housing market is slumping, "I feel vindicated," Mr. Jackson says. "But I'm not looking forward to the coming recession." He believes that the housing slowdown and the effects of "a mountain of debt" on consumers will pull the entire economy into a slump.

Mr. Jackson blames what he calls "the housing industrial complex" in general and Mr. Lereah, the Realtors' economist, in particular. Since last year, Mr. Jackson has maintained a blog (davidlereahwatch.blogspot.com) devoted entirely to vilifying Mr. Lereah.

The blog recently offered a $75 cash prize for an essay containing "the most scathing criticism" of Mr. Lereah. Sample submission: "Dr. Lereah is a lying snake with the ethics of a dope-dealing pimp."

Mr. Lereah says he doesn't object to the blog. "There are people who believe it's the end of the world" for housing, he says. "They blame me for being positive."

Mr. Lereah resorts to putting words in my mouth when he says, in reference to my blog, that "There are people who believe it's the end of the world" for housing. I have never claimed it is the end of the world for housing. I claimed that from peak the "Prices declines in the bubble markets are very likely to vary between 20% - 65 in real dollars."

By putting words in my mouth, Mr. Lereah, attempts to make me out as a housing extremist. He uses a straw man (Fallacy Of Extension) argument. Mr. Lereah cannot be trusted because of his history of deception and wrong predictions.

David Lereah's Most Corrupt, Foolish and Ridiculous Quotes

2006-12-23T15:11:00.000-08:00

"If you paid your mortgage off, it means you probably did not manage your funds efficiently over the years," said David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors and author of "Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?" "It's as if you had 500,000 dollar bills stuffed in your mattress."

He called it "very unsophisticated." (Los Angeles Times Aug 28th, 2005)

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"We're going to drop significantly, but it's not a balloon bursting," Lereah says. "This is a soft landing for the housing markets." (Business Week May 23rd, 2006)

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"...housing activity will remain healthy for some time to come." - David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, October 28, 2005

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“The continuing shortages of housing inventory are driving the price gains. There is no evidence of bubbles popping.” - David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, August 2005

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"We are really on track for a soft landing. There are no balloons popping.” - David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, December 2005

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Please post Your own favorite Lereah Quotes. [ Hat Tip to Keith from Housing Panic for suggesting this post and Surving The Crash Blog ]

Lereah Responds to 'Why are people so skeptical of you?'

2006-12-22T09:21:00.000-08:00

Diana Olick, of CNBC, in today's Reality Check Column asks David Lereah 'Why are people so skeptical of you?'. Here read an excerpt from the story!

Still, NAR's chief economist David Lereah gets a lot of flak. He not only gets hate mail, he's got his own hate site: (link). Actually, there are several not-too-savory sites on David. I called him this morning and asked, "Why are people so skeptical of you?" (That wasn't exactly how I phrased it.)

"Because I'm a shill. Look, they're basically saying, "You're the Realtors, you're in it for the money, you have to say the market is going well." What are you going to do?" says Lereah. "When the market is good, we can say no wrong, and now the market's down and they're getting skeptical and they don't believe it. To be quite candid, we all have really good housing models, and all we're doing is putting the data in and
generating the numbers. There's nothing to hide. My members don't get angry at me if I say sales are down 10% this year. I don't get fired."

David Lereah speaks the truth, but he's also one of the best spinners I've ever met, and after 17 years in this business, I've met a lot. David always finds a way to turn a negative number into a positive outlook. The steep fall in sales is a "correction" to him. Falling prices are "healthy for the market." He's got a million of 'em, but guess what, he's also got real numbers.

Diana Olick attacks Lereah as "one of the best spinners" but also writes that he 'speaks the truth.' Are his cheerleading predictions the truth? Are his half truths and deliberate spins truths or clever deceptions?

Lereah needs to be taken to task by the media. Diana Olick's analysis of Lereah is weak. She lacks the sharp crticism that Lereah deserves for his deceptive remarks, his irresponsible cheerleading, and half truths that he regulary provides to the media.

NAR Deleting Criticism of David Lereah on Wikipedia

2006-12-15T11:35:00.000-08:00

The NAR is getting more desperate. Someone who is a Wikipedia user sent this information to me:

You'll like this. Someone at a NAR IP address, deleted criticisms of David Lereah from his Wikipedia page, Here are the diffs: I restored the deleted material.

Basically, someone from the National association of Realtors deleted from Wikipedia's David Lereah page the part that read:

Lereah has been criticized for encouraging the rise of the United States housing bubble. According to an interview in the Chicago Tribune, "In October 2005 Lereah was busy calling the bubble believers `Chicken Littles.' Many of the predictions espoused by the `Chicken Littles' are fast becoming closer to reality. David Lereah has lost credibility because of his irresponsible cheerleading."[4] Lereah said that he has been forecasting a decline in sales for some time: "For three years, I've said, `This is the year that sales will come down.'"

It is a real low to delete legitimate criticism of Mr. Lereah from Wikipedia. If you type in David Lereah into Google the third hit is this blog. Take that Lereah!

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is an organization that is out to help Realtors receive more money from transactions of housing units. It's stated interest is to help Realtors. They are not here to help the public. They use deception and cheerleading by paid shills like Mr. Lereah to promote their harmful agenda.

David Lereah: Market Stabilizing

2006-12-05T05:35:00.000-08:00

David Lereah, the most prominent housing cheerleader recently said in a statement that:

"It's important to focus on where the housing market is now — it appears to be stabilizing, and comparisons with an unsustainable boom mask the fact that home sales remain historically high"

The market is far from stabilizing. The housing boom lasted five years plus in many locations. Why does Lereah think the the housing market will stabilizile after only 1 year, or so, of declines? Historically, housing busts last for many years. Perhaps it is because Mr. Lereah is a paid shill of the housing industrial complex.

David Lereah Attacked on Buzz Saw Miter's Blog

2006-12-05T05:25:00.000-08:00

Buzz Saw's Miter Box Blog attacks housing cheerleaders. About David Lereah it is written:

David Lereah, mouthpiece of the NAR. This guy is such an a-hole he has an independent blogger personally dedicated to documenting his inane spew. No list of housing bubble wack jobs could possibly omit this polished turd. Another personality disorder case too. This is the kid you wouldn't let date your sister in high school. Ole Dave never saw a set of statistics he couldn't spin. He can also do an about face faster than a Marine private. Listen to this man's advice at your own peril.

Wow! Quite an assualt on Mr. Lereah.

David Lereah Watch Mentioned In Salon (Again)

2006-11-29T07:23:00.000-08:00

The David Lereah Watch Blog was mentioned again in Salon's How the World Works column. Below is an excerpt:

Housing: The good, the bad and the funny

The good news: Sales of existing homes ticked upward for the first time in eight months, by .5 percent over September.

The bad news: Sales are still down 11.5 percent year-over-year and the median home price plummeted by $8,000 over a year ago, the largest year-to-year drop on record. Inventory levels also continued to rise, which promises to put even more pressure on prices.

The funny news: National Association of Realtors chief economist David Lereah said "market fundamentals are improving" and blamed "psychological factors" for continuing to inhibit buyers from snapping up all those great deals out there. (For an amusing look at Lereah's go-go presentation at the recent National Association of Realtors convention in New Orleans, check out DavidLereahWatch: In short, there's never been a better time to buy, buy, buy!

Thanks for the mention! As the housing market continues to decline Mr. Lereah will become a laughing stock.

More Spin From David Lereah

2006-11-28T09:23:00.000-08:00

NAR's October existing home sales showed a seasonally adjusted increase in home sales of .5% from September, a median sales price decline of 3.5% year over year and inventories of unsold homes increased 1.9% to 3.854 million, representing a 7.4-month supply at the October sales rate. This is largest months' supply since April 1993.

Lereah On Sales: "The present level of home sales demonstrates some confidence in the market, but sales are lower than sustainable due to psychological factors."

“The present level of home sales demonstrates some confidence in the market, but sales are lower than sustainable due to psychological factors,” he said. “The demographics of our growing population, historically low and declining mortgage interest rates, and healthy job creation mean the wherewithal is there to buy homes in most of the country, but many buyers remain on the sidelines. After a period of price adjustment, we’ll see more confidence in the market and a lift to home sales should be apparent in the first quarter of 2007.”

“‘As expected, existing-home sales appear to be stabilizing, fingers and toes crossed,’ said Lereah. Falling prices are ‘a good thing,’ Lereah said

Falling prices are good thing? Tell that to all the f*cked borrowers who you encouraged to take out toxic mortgages and some of them now have negative equity. Lereah you shopuld be ashamed of you deception, shame and folly. You have lost credibility. The Realtors should choose someone else to lead them.

Freeloing Roomate wrote: "In Lereah’s own words months-supply is the most important statistic. Months-supply continues to rise. The market fundamentals are deteriorating according to Lereah’s own metrics."

David Lereah's Presentation At Realtors Convention

2006-11-20T21:09:00.000-08:00

David Lereah's presention The Road to Recovery, slide number 1, at the Realtor's Annual Convention in New Orleans (Nardi Gras). It is ironic that there is a steep treacherous cliff on the edge of the road and clouds ahead.

Announcing it is a 'Unique Housing Cycle,' Lereah blames the current declines on affordability problems, investor flight, psychology and a media scare.

Sidelined Buyers: Lereah tells potential buyer that the 'Buyer's Market Will Soon End.' David , Paid Shill, Lereah is once again using scare tactics to sell houses. Lereah is a disgrace. His books have been discredited. Lereah, will go down in infamy as the housing bubble continues to pop. Lereah is the new Irving Fisher. [Notice the '184,0000' number. It is a mistype. Should have been 184,000. Great job Lereah! (thanks to a reader for noticing Lereah's mistype]

David Lererah mocks the 'Negative Media'.

'Buyers Are Missing Opportunities If They Postpone.' He asks "Can you afford NOT to lock in now?" given today's low interest rates. Does Lereah have no shame?

Lereah's last slide is a quote from Greenspan saying that "Most of the negatives in housing are probably behind us. The fourth quarter should be reasonably good, certainly better than the third quarter."

Lereah @ Nardi Gras

2006-11-12T07:46:00.000-08:00

Lereah and his fellow Realtors are at the annual National Assocation of Realtors convention. This year they are down in New Orleans. Last year New Orleans was underwater, this year many homeowners are underwater on thier mortgage.

To cheer up up grumpy Realtors, who pay Mr. Lereah's salary, he offered hope.

"We need a price decline, we were overbloated," particularly on the West Coast, David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, told attendees at his organization's annual meeting here on Friday.

"In 2007, it will be a flat year, maybe 1 percent [sales] drop, and that's it," Lereah said. "After 2007, we'll be back to expansion again."

Lereah forecast that 2006 sales will end up about 9 percent lower than in 2005, a record year. He anticipates sales of 6.47 million units, declining to 6.43 million next year. Prices nationwide will be down by about 2 percent, year over year, and will inch up by 1.5 percent in 2007, he said.

New-home sales will decline this year by 16.8 percent, to 1.07 million units, and will sink 8.7 percent further next year, to 975,000, he said.

Lereah said inventory is stabilizing, citing his trade group's data on pending sales--homes that have gone under contract.

"It appears that inventory has peaked," said Lereah, who now estimates a 7.3 month supply of available homes nationwide.

"We were hovering near four to five months' [supply of homes for sale] during the boom, and in some areas, such as Orange County, Calif., we were measuring it in weeks, not months."

But Lereah said the national picture is positive. "I'm optimistic for 74 percent of the country," where local markets are, at worst, flat. The other 26 percent are in for some rough times."

Struggling the most would be California, South Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and metro Washington, D.C., he said, where sellers need to lower their prices.

Mr. Lereah, the discredited chief ~~economist~~ propagandist for the Realtor is still whitewashing the real estate reality. He is also busy saying self contradictory things.

David Lereah's My Space Page*

2006-11-07T11:02:00.000-08:00

Check out David Lereah's My Space Page. Ok, it is not really David Lereah's page. Someone just created it to mock him. He has three friends listed, one of them being Satan. On his blog it is written

Watch out for my HATERS Current mood: annoyed
Hey someone just told me about this site:David Lereah Watch
Watch out... This looks like a place to read all about what I have to
say about real estate but this guy is just making fun of me!

Very funny! Keep the criticism rolling!

David Lereah Watch Mentioned in SF Gate

2006-11-04T21:36:00.000-08:00

The David Lereah Watch was mentioned in a San Fransisco Gate article title 'Bubble Bloggers are the new real estate sages.' As Cramer says 'Boo Ya!'

But despite the daunting numbers, the real estate industry continues to post optimistic predictions like a tribe of Pollyannas on steroids. Last week, David Lereah, author of 2006's "Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust" and the National Association of Realtor's chief economist, had the audacity to suggest that "the worst is behind us" in terms of lagging sales numbers in September.
Times have changed, though. When the market was boomin', his word might've been taken as gospel. But now that the sky is falling, bubble bloggers have become the sages of the day. In August, Ben Jones, creator of Thehousingbubbleblog.com, was featured in a Q&A on Newsweek's Web site, and Andrew Leonard covered his blog in Salon. Last week, David Lereah Watch, the Internet watchdog of the industry's most relentless booster, was mentioned in Business Week. .....

Other blogs have attempted to give this mathematical mayhem a human face. David Lereah Watch chronicles the botched predictions issuing from this high-profile industry insider

Neat. Thanks for the mention. :-)

David Lereah Watch Essay Competition

2006-11-04T21:25:00.000-08:00

The David Lereah Watch Blog has launched an essay competition for the most scathing criticism of David Lereah. Be Fair! Be Tough!

Rules:

All essays must be submitted by November 27th at 11:30pm EST via emailing bubblemeter @ gmail.com. (A winner will be announced by December 15th)
All essay must be at least 500 words and no longer then 1500 words.
No obscene language. No swear words
Use at least 3 quotes by Mr. Lereah (and date them)
All essays must have a title of your choosing
One Submission Per Person

The winner's essay will be published on the David Lereah Watch. The winner will receive an acknowledgement or can choose to remain anonymous. The winner will also receive $75 in cold hard cash.

David Lereah Watch Mentioned In Business Week

2006-10-28T19:59:00.000-07:00

The David Lereah Watch was mentioned in Peter Coy's Hot Property column:

Every problem has to have a public face, and to many people, David Lereah is the public face of the housing slump. People say Lereah was too upbeat about house prices in the boom (he wrote a badly timed 2005 book called "Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?" Now, they say, he has overreached to put a positive spin on the downside. There is an entire blog devoted to trashing the genial Lereah, who is chief economist of the National Association of Realtors
I'm not usually one for piling on, but I couldn't resist passing along this wisecrack about Lereah from Peter Schiff, the bearish president of brokerage firm Euro Pacific Capital, www.europac.net). It was emailed to me by his brother and publicist:

"If the National Association of Realtors chief economist David Lereah had covered the arrival of the Hindenburg in New Jersey in 1937 (instead of Herb "Oh the Humanity" Morrison) it too may have been described as a 'soft landing.'"

Peter Schiff's joke about David Lereah is phenomenal. LOL! :-)

Lereah 'worst is behind us' for Home Sales

2006-10-25T09:52:00.000-07:00

The NAR released thier September Existing Homes today. Mr. Lereah had this to say:

“Considering that existing-home sales are based on closed transactions, this is a lagging indicator and the worst is behind us as far as a market correction – this is likely the trough for sales,” he said. “When consumers recognize that home sales are stabilizing, we’ll see the buyers who’ve been on the sidelines get back into the market, and sales will be at more normal levels in the wake of the unsustainable boom that we saw last year.”

What will he say next?

David Lereah's New Book

2006-10-22T20:46:00.000-07:00

David Lereah is at it a again. He is writing yet another book titled 'All Real Estate is Local: Why Understanding the Housing Trends in Your Area Is Essential to Building Wealth.'

From the Publisher:

Book Description

Evaluate the values of homes in one's own town or county
Determine whether property values in your targeted neighborhood are on the rise
Assess the market conditions in locations when buying a vacation or second home
Learn how to identify markets that are overvalued or fully valued, and those that promise to appreciate more quickly in the future
Understand the local economic developments that can affect oneÂs investment in the future

--------------------------

Even in 2006 as the housing bubble was popping, David Lereah updated his book and wrote "I believe that in years to come historians will see the beginning of the twenty-first century as the "golden age" of real estate. And I want to persuade you to take advantage of this historic opportunity. In the first part of the book, I will paint a clear picture of today's real estate boom and explain why the boom will continue well into the next decade."

David Lereah's Book Changes

Mr. Lereah tells half truths and manipulates facts and figures. He cannot be trusted as he is a paid shill.

David Lereah Respond's To Moody's Housing at Tipping Point

2006-10-05T17:06:00.000-07:00

David Lereah responded to Moody's negative report on Housing at Tipping Point:

David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, disagrees with the severity of the price downturn in the report.

"It's possible we could go under zero, if you include prices of new homes" along with sales data for existing homes, he said. "For existing homes, I'm still predicting that prices will be above [last year] by 2 percent."

Nonetheless, Lereah agreed that broad price declines in some regions are unavoidable.

"I don't think I would use the word `crash,'" he said. "When you use a word like that, it's almost a self-fulfilling prophecy in the housing market. These are people's homes. Their retirement is depending on it."

Is Mr. Lereah saying that if people's retirement did not depend on the housing market then he would use the term 'crash' like Moody's did? If the housing market was indeed based on fundamentals, in the bubble markets using the term 'crash' would not become a 'self-fulfilling prophecy.'

Mr. Lereah, you were one of the housing cheerleaders who encouraged people down this dangerous path. You even wrote two books promoting the housing boom. As Ben Jones wrote "Maybe the NAR should have been urging caution the past few years instead of cheering prices higher."

Lereah "Housing Market Has Now Hit Bottom"

2006-09-25T07:41:00.000-07:00

Responding to the August Existing Home Sales Number, David 'soft landing' Lereah, stated that "We've been anticipating a price correction and now it's here. The price drop has stopped the bleeding for housing sales. We think the housing market has now hit bottom.''

Think Again!

David Lereah Spoof

2006-09-21T08:51:00.000-07:00

Genius. Thanks to Housing Panic.

David Lereah Watch Mentioned In Salon

2006-09-19T10:54:00.000-07:00

David Lereah Watch was mentioned in Andrew Leonard's How the World Works column in Salon Magazine. :-)

Chicken Little's revenge

The August new-housing-start numbers are out, and they're not good, dropping by more than analysts expected.

But the heck with the numbers. According to David Lereah, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, this was all to be expected. "The housing boom ended more than a year ago, but sellers are having a tough time accepting that fact," said Lereah. "The result has been tumbling sales as buyers stay on the sidelines.”

The busy beavers commenting at the Housing Bubble blog, who have been grinding their teeth over Lereah's self-serving interpretations of real estate data for years, were quick to dig up a quote from exactly "a year ago."

"With a general background of growing population and favorable affordability conditions, home sales are staying at very healthy levels," said Lereah. "As a result, we'll continue to see above-normal home price appreciation for the foreseeable future."

Lereah is quoted in nearly every article that reports new-housing data, as if he were some kind of impartial source, instead of a spokesman for the real estate industry and the author of a book whose 2005 title was "Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?: Why Home Values and Other Real Estate Investments Will Climb Through the End of the Decade -- and How to Profit From Them." But personally, I didn't think the above quote was all that damning. So I went looking for more and found the latest proof that on the Internet, there really is a blog devoted to everything an info junkie could possibly need. I give you David Lereah Watch.

There, we can find a picture of a Power Point slide from October 2005, in which Lereah called two of the biggest predictors of a housing bust, Yale's Robert "Irrational Exuberance" Schiller and Dean "Beat the Press" Baker, "Chicken Littles." We also learn that in February, the title of his book was changed to "Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust -- and How You Can Profit From It."

We're looking forward to the 2007 title: "Busted! Why You Should Have Listened to Chicken Little, Instead of Me."

--------------------------------

What a great article! Thanks!

David Lereah: The Boom Ended A Year Ago

2006-09-19T10:09:00.000-07:00

“The housing boom ended more than a year ago, but sellers are having a tough time accepting that fact, says David Lereah, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. The result has been tumbling sales as buyers stay on the sidelines.”
“The expansion that began in November 1991, when mortgage rates fell into single digits, became a boom following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, when trillions of dollars left the stock market looking for a safe haven in real estate, Lereah said.”

“This correction is different from any others because it wasn’t triggered by a recession, high financing costs or job losses. With unemployment below 5 percent, mortgage rates still below 7 percent and a growing economy, ‘all you need is a price correction, a price adjustment, to bring the market back,’ Lereah told the crowd.”

“The transition to lower prices is already under way nationwide, Lereah said, and will result in a more balanced market than the one that has been dominated by sellers. He said the Capital Region experienced ‘a moderate boom’ without the extreme price run-ups or overbuilding seen in parts of California and Florida. As a result, ‘you don’t need as much of a price correction,’ he said.”

“Lereah predicted prices will drop nationally over the next six months, and that each percentage point drop ‘will bring thousands and thousands of buyers back into the marketplace.’” (Times Union)

David Lereah @ Peak Bubble

2006-09-13T16:49:00.000-07:00

David Lereah Watch Makes Chicago Tribune Article

2006-09-10T21:14:00.000-07:00

The David Lereah Watch Blog made it into the mainstream media. Here is an excerpt from a Chicago Tribune Article:

Lereah and his fellow housing industry economists don't come out unscathed. Critics say they generated unfounded optimism that the housing market would soar perpetually.

"In October 2005 Lereah was busy calling the bubble believers `Chicken Littles,'" goes one post in a blog dedicated to criticizing the economist, davidlereahwatch.blogspot.com. "Many of the predictions espoused by the `Chicken Littles' are fast becoming closer to reality. ... David Lereah has lost credibility because of his irresponsible cheerleading."

I am glad that I have been challenging the housing industrial complex. David Lereah and the National Association of Realtors have been engaging in digraceful behaviour.

Lereah: "Home prices should return to positive territory within a few months"

2006-09-10T14:13:00.000-07:00

Home sales during the rest of the year will be lower than earlier projections as the market works its way through an inventory and price imbalance, according to the National Association of Realtors^®.

David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said the most obvious effect in the near term will be with home prices. “A year ago we had record home sales and tight supply with buyers bidding over the asking price,” he said. “This year sales are slowing, homes are plentiful and sellers are negotiating. Under these conditions, we’ll probably see prices dip temporarily below year-ago levels as the market works through a build up in housing inventory.”

“This is a normal pattern during a market correction, but home prices should return to positive territory within a few months and annual appreciation will be slower than historic norms,” Lereah said. “Keep in mind that over time, home prices rise at the rate of inflation plus one-to-two percentage points – buyers in most of the country who plan to stay in their home for a normal period of homeownership can pretty well bank on those historic averages, but people who purchased last year with the intent of flipping are likely to get burned.”

NAR Septmeber 2005 Forecast

Lereah's Most Recent Deception

2006-09-08T06:56:00.000-07:00

Recently, Florida Paradise Lost reported how the National Association Realtors, kept on revising their forecasts for 2006 existing home sales. However, the NYTimes quoted David Lereah who is the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors as saying:

“The boom is cooling now,” said David Lereah, the chief economist for the association, who added that falling home sales have been “a bit worse than we had anticipated.”

The group said that it now expected sales to fall further than it has said in the past — about 7.5 percent this year compared with an earlier projection of a 5 percent decline.

As chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), David Lereah, is responsible for the economic forecasts. Back on October 28th, 2005 the NAR forecasted that:

Existing-home sales are projected to decline 3.5 percent in 2006 to 6.86 million. New-home sales, seen to grow by 8.0 percent to 1.30 million in 2005, are expected to fall 4.5 percent to 1.24 million next year. The figures for 2006 would be the second highest year for each sector.

So on October 28th, 2005 the David Lereah and the NAR forecasted that there would be a decline of 3.5% in existing home sales for 2006 compared to 2005. Now, Mr. Lereah is forecasting a decline of 7.5% for 2006.

The September 2006 forecast is more then double the decline of the October 2005 forecast. Despite the large adjustment from his October 2005 forecast, David Lereah says that the decline is "a bit worse than we had anticipated." This is deceptive. Due to his cheerleading and continuing deceptions Mr. Lereah cannot be trusted.

David Lereah: Small Temporarily Blip in Prices

2006-09-07T10:21:00.000-07:00

Prices should bounce higher in a few months, said David Lereah, chief economist for the real estate group "as the market works through a build in housing inventory."

"This year sales are slowing, homes are plentiful and sellers are negotiating," Lereah said. "Under these conditions, we'll probably see prices dip temporarily below year-ago levels as the market works through a build up in housing inventory."

Lereah said home prices typically appreciate at the rate of inflation, plus one or two percentage points. Buyers who plan to stay in their homes should see those gains, but "people who purchased last year with the intent of flipping are likely to get burned," he said.

(MarketWatch)

Potential Buyers on Sidelines

2006-08-31T14:57:00.000-07:00

David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said higher interest rates dampened sales but that price softening is good news for the housing market because it is drawing buyers. “Many potential home buyers have been on the sidelines, some ‘kicking the tires,’ but mostly waiting for sellers to compromise on prices and terms,” he said. “Now sellers in many areas of the country are pricing to reflect current market realities. As a result, there could be some lift to home sales, but it’ll likely take some months for price appreciation to rise.” (NAR 8/23/06)

David Lereah's 'Greatest' Hits

2006-08-23T17:33:00.000-07:00

The National Association of Realtors just released some of David Lereah's 'Greatest' Hits. These are some of the most requested power point presentations by NAR Chief Economist David Lereah and others from the last 12 months.

While reviewing David Lereah's power point presentations I found one titled 'Winding down to and Expansion' from October 2005 . Below is one of the images:

In October 2005, David Lereah was busy calling the bubble believers 'chicken littles.' Many of the predictions espoused by the 'chicken littles' are fast becoming closer to reality. Inversely, David Lereah has lost credibility because of his irresponsible cheerleading.

David Lereah Continues To Spout 'Soft Landing'

2006-08-20T06:14:00.000-07:00

David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said a market transition is apparent. "With more sellers competing for the pool of buyers, the pressure on home prices has evaporated in most metro areas," he said. "After a full year of double-digit gains in the national median price, the timing is right for a cooling in the rate of growth -- we are presently experiencing a soft landing in the housing sector."

Short Lived Price Declines

2006-07-26T09:57:00.000-07:00

Lereah had this to say:

"Could it be a 5 percent drop in prices? Could it be 10 percent? Whatever it is, it will be short-lived, because demand is right there on the sidelines," said David A. Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors.

Lereah Changing Tune

2006-07-25T10:03:00.000-07:00

From Marketwatch: Existing home sales fall 1.3% to 6.62 million:

Inventories at 9-year high; price gains at a 10-year low

The report shows a continued weakening in the housing market, with inventories up sharply while prices are softening.

The inventory of unsold homes rose to a record 3.725 million, a 6.8 month supply at the June sales rate, the highest since July 1997.

The median price has risen 0.9% in the past year to $231,000. It's the weakest price growth in 10 years.

Sales of existing homes are down 8.9% in the past year.

"I hope we are hitting bottom," said David Lereah, chief economist for the private real estate trade group, which is predicting sales of about 6.60 million this year.
...
Sales were flat in the West and Midwest. Sales fell 2.3% in the South and fell 3.5% in the Northeast.

Single-family sales fell 0.9% to 5.81 million from 5.86 million. Condo sales fell 5.5% to 805,000.

Median prices of single-family homes are up 1.1% in the past year, while condo prices are down 2.1%.

Sellers should expect lower prices, Lereah said, adding that he wouldn't be surprised to see single-family home prices fall nationally.

David Lereah Expects Soft Landing

2006-07-18T10:45:00.000-07:00

Sales of U.S. homes will ease modestly but should stay within a narrow range for the remainder of 2006, a real estate agents' trade group said on Tuesday.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said in a monthly forecast that it expects sales this year of existing homes to fall 6.7 percent to 6.6 million units, the third highest yearly level on record, from 7.08 million in 2005.

NAR also said it expects new home sales to fall 12.8 percent to 1.12 million units from 1.28 million in 2005, and for housing starts to dip 6.8 percent to 1.93 million units from 2.07 million last year.

"We should see home sales rise and fall month to month, but don't look for any big shifts one way or the other," National Association of Realtors chief economist David Lereah said in a statement.

"The major housing indicators have been moving up and down within a reasonable range, which means the market should even out just below present levels," he said. "At the same time, housing inventory levels are balanced in much of the country, so overall price appreciation will be at a normal rate." (Reuters 7/18/06)

On Course for a Soft Landing

2006-06-27T17:25:00.000-07:00

"Right now we are on course for a soft landing." - David Lereah

David Lereah's New Book

2006-06-25T13:41:00.000-07:00

Hat Tip to Housing Panic Blog. "Hat-tip to Housing Panic'er Damon for the work"

It is past time that David Lereah is taken to task by the mainstream media.

Mr. Lereah's Cheerleading Books

2006-06-21T09:31:00.000-07:00

Mr. Lereah is Back Pedaling

2006-06-14T07:14:00.000-07:00

David 'soft landing' Lereah is backpeddaling the reality of the declining housing market hits him in the face. Here is the lastest quote:

The housing standoff between buyers and sellers in South Florida will continue for another six months, and then prices in some areas will fall, a well-respected economist predicted Tuesday. In some cases prices may fall by 10 percent to 15 percent.

Adjust for inflation and you now have large real dollar price declines. Ain't looking so soft!

The Motley Fool Takes on NAR and David Lereah

2006-06-12T06:10:00.000-07:00

The Motley Fool has a very solid article taking on David Lereah and the National Association of Realtors.

Lereah on Fed Hikes

2006-06-06T10:04:00.000-07:00

“‘But this is a time for the Fed to pause on rate hikes because we have some interest-sensitive housing markets that have become vulnerable,’ he said.”
—————————————————————————
When the fed was reducing rates, did he say it’s time to stop lowering because housing was overheating and being overrun with speculators? Noooooo!!

From commentator Brad on Ben's Blog

2006-05-30T20:55:00.000-07:00

David Lereah's home is declining in value according to Zillow.com.

David 'soft landing' Lereah's condo investments located in the Wasgington, DC metro area are also starting to depreciate in value at an even faster clip. [Zillow still has a some inaccuracies, but this valuation looks right]

Mish's Global Economic Analysis Takes on Lereah

2006-05-30T17:13:00.000-07:00

Mish's Global Economic Analysis takes on David Lereah.

Of course Greenspan has company with his call. Please consider statements made by David Lereah, head cheerleader for the National Association of Realtors: "There is no real estate bubble.

....

At times David Lereah appears to have a grasp of the underlying facts, yet manages to come to all of the wrong conclusions about what is happening and why. No one should be surprised by this. David Lereah is a paid cheerleader for the National Association of Realtors, not a real economist.

Well put. :-)

Lereah: It may be the the bottom

2006-05-25T08:47:00.000-07:00

"The housing market peaked in August", said David Lereah, chief economist for the real estate group. "This may be the bottom. It appears May is a little better"

“Higher interest rates are slowing home sales, but we see this as another sign of a soft landing for the housing sector which remains at historically high levels.”

Lereah's Interview with Business Week

2006-05-23T05:26:00.000-07:00

From David Lereah's Interview with Bussiness Week:

In a picture posted on the National Association of Realtors' Web site, David Lereah appears trimly dressed, with light glowing behind him. The industry group's chief economist, author of Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom? (Doubleday, Random House), published in February, 2005, has been talking up the housing market for years.

Now he says the housing market is just taking a breather. "We're going to drop significantly, but it's not a balloon bursting," Lereah says. "This is a soft landing for the housing markets." He expects total home sales to drop to 6.62 million in 2006, from 7.07 million in 2005. Meanwhile, he thinks prices will continue appreciating this year, but only by around 5%, compared with 12.5% during 2005.

Why? Lereah says the growing economy will boost the market, offsetting the negative impact of rising interest rates. If you agree with his mantra, you'll say the Federal Reserve is the housing market's friend. BusinessWeek Online reporter Sonja Ryst recently asked the economist to explain his outlook. Edited excerpts from their conversation follow.

Why do you think prices will continue rising?

The economy is growing and there are job gains, so consumers have the financial wherewithal to purchase homes. Sure, the rise in rates has been inhibiting buying recently. A lot of the boom markets that boomed over the last several years are cooling off and home sales are dropping. But if the economy were in a recession, this would be worse. And mortgage rates aren't rising too high -- they're only going up to 7% by the end of the year.

What supports the housing markets are income gains, job creation, consumer confidence, and mortgage rates. We have all of the above still supporting us. Meanwhile, the demographic trends are wonderful. You have boomers buying homes and retirees living longer. The boomer children are now first-time home buyers. Everything still points to strong demand for home buying.

Are you worried about the drop in non-owner-occupied real estate values in certain cities, such as San Diego?

That's not going to spread. The health of a local economy tells us whether a real estate market is in good shape or bad shape, and most of those are very healthy. If you go to Miami, Washington, Chicago, or Los Angeles, those are healthy economies, and they're not going to be affected by what happens in San Diego. And prices are too high in San Diego because it's not an affordable city. The economy there isn't thriving, so it's hard to keep up there right now.

Do you think banks have been lending too aggressively?

The last two years of the boom were exaggerated because of lending. There were more loans, such as negative amortization loans, allowing people to put off their debt payments until later. In some metropolitan areas, this exaggerated home prices and increased them further than they should have gone.

To that extent, there's some risk in those local markets. For example, if you take any local market in California, they'll have interest-only loans and adjustable-rate mortgages because prices got too high. If mortgage rates increase, then some of those markets are vulnerable. But the forecast isn't for interest rates to go up significantly. I have mortgage rates going to 7%, not to 10%.

Before 2004, the banks weren't doing those types of loans -- I mean they didn't do them in any meaningful way. After 2004, places like California got too high in price and people couldn't afford homes anymore. That's why they started stretching the credit at that point and offering people lower downpayments, so people would take the homes at those prices.

Why do you think mortgage rates will go to 7%?

I don't see the Fed taking rates up higher. They have to worry about the housing markets and the economy slowing too much. Even though there's a little pressure on them from inflation, it's still under control. With the exception of oil, I don't see a scenario where rates can go higher.... But if the price of oil goes up from where it is today, it's a risk for every sector of the economy, not just housing.

Do you think the housing market could ever crash?

I'm getting tired of all these doomsayers. We live in houses, and our houses are not going to crash. This isn't the stock market.... Local economies are relatively healthy. There's job creation -- this isn't a scenario where bubbles burst. Can there be one or two or three or several local markets where prices actually go down? Yes. But to generalize for 30 markets or the whole real estate marketplace -- that's absurd.

David Lereah @ Boca Raton

2006-05-15T08:16:00.000-07:00

The Boca Raton News had this to report on the latest statements by David 'soft landing' Lereah.

Lereah was quick to make his message clear: "You don't need a boom for real estate to roar. The real estate boom is over but the real estate expansion is still here." Although homes are not selling as quickly right now, prices are still up. "There are no real estate bubbles, only balloons that expand and contract," he said

David Lereah is basically saying slow appreciation. Certainly there will not be slow appreciation in bubblicious Boca or other bubble markets.

"Forty percent of all home sales in 2005 were second homes - investment properties and vacation homes - compared to about 9 percent 10 years ago," Lereah said.

This should scare the sh*t out of any one who bought in a bubble market.

"Real estate is not an irrational investment, but speculators purchased irrationally during the boom, especially in areas like Miami. This drove prices up, and many speculators took out interest-only loans. This produced a vulnerable real estate market," Lereah explained. "In 2006, we are cleansing the market of speculation."

In 2007, Lereah believes that the real estate market will continue to expand even if mortgage rates increase to 7 percent. "That is still low," he said.

Sure. There will be no expansion in prices in 2007 in the bubble markets.

Buying real estate has advantages, too. "It is the most leveraged asset and there are tax advantagesÂReal estate needs to play a role in your investment and retirement portfolio. You should diversify," Lereah said.

He added that he is bullish on Florida, Arizona and Nevada because of even greater population increases. "The law of supply and demand works."

Wow, now he isreally going out on a limb. Remember the fundamentals. But can they afford the overpriced housing units?

All of Lereah's real estate investments are in condominiums and townhomes because he doesn't want to be involved in maintaining them. "If you're Mr. Fix It, then it's okay to invest in a single-family home," he said.

Lereah also pointed out that he has invested in several condominium conversions. "Condo conversions are good because the property is already there."

Looks like he may loose money as well during the bubble. I wonder how much money Mr. Lereah has invested in RE.

More Lereah

2006-05-09T14:46:00.000-07:00

“‘It’s going from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market,’ said David Lereah, the chief economist for the NAR. In March, ‘price appreciation went down to 7.4 percent, from over 10 percent,’ he added. ‘That most probably reflects that sellers are bringing their prices down.

Do you still believe in a soft landing?

NYTimes Walkthrough Blog Mentions This Blog

2006-04-29T21:17:00.000-07:00

Here is the Post:

Bloggers vs. Realtors

Categories: Agents & Brokers

The bubble boys are chronicling every word coming out of the mouth of the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist, David Lereah. Check out this new blog: The David Lereah Watch.

It’s not the most exciting blog because Mr. Lereah isn’t really a controversial figure. He’s an economist trying to make predictions to guide the members of his association. And it isn’t clear why his utterances need to be scrutinized as if they were emanating from Alan Greenspan. But Mr. Lereah has become a target for those who get giddy thinking that the real estate market might collapse. They want him to say it will.

To quote from the mission statement of the site:

Mr. Lereah tells half truths and manipulates facts and figures. He cannot be trusted as he is a paid shill.

But the blogger hasn’t found an example of that assertion yet.

I see that the N.A.R. has started its own blog offering advice to its members. Some of the posts are a reaction to the book “Freakonomics,” which suggests that agents’ interests and those of their clients aren’t always aligned. At other times, it warns agents how the media types operate:

The media’s need for balance poses both challenges and opportunities. Sometimes you may get a call from a reporter working on deadline who only wants your reaction to a story that is already written. You should expect only a small citation in the story. Make sure it’s the best possible statement by preparing carefully.

But nothing so far about those bubble bloggers. – DAMON DARLIN

Link to This Comments (1)

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Wow! They are somewhat crictical of this blog.

"It’s not the most exciting blog because Mr. Lereah isn’t really a controversial figure."

In the BubbleSphere, David Lereah is a very controversial figure. He cannot be trusted as he is a paid cheerleading shill.

National Home Sales & Price Gains 2006 Prediction

2006-04-28T01:48:00.000-07:00

"David Lereah, the Realtors' chief economist, said he was still looking for a gradual slowdown in housing that would result in a drop of around 6 percent in home sales this year and a slowing in price gains to around 6 percent, compared with the double-digit gains in prices in recent years."

(Saint Petersburg Times April 26, 2006)

Lereah on Florida Housing Market

2006-04-27T22:52:00.000-07:00

The housing market’s chief cheerleader has a surprisingly stark message for Florida Realtors: 2006 is going to be a tough year. The region’s real estate economy must recover from a hangover wrought by a spasm of speculation and easy money, David Lereah, told Realtors at a West Palm Beach hotel today.”

“‘We’re in a cleansing mode right now,’ Lereah told about 400 people. ‘It’s gonna hurt.’”

“While Lereah compared the housing boom’s excesses to the stock market bubble of 2000, he doesn’t foresee a Nasdaq-like crash for home prices. Rather, he calls real estate ‘the new gold standard’ for safety-minded investors and predicts a period of sluggish activity followed by a return to a stronger housing market next year.”

“‘If you have a healthy local economy, it’s almost impossible to have a bubble burst,’ he said.” “For the near future, though, home sellers will have to contend with a glut of properties for sale and reduced interest from buyers. Lereah called the slowdown healthy: ‘Prices got a little too high. We got ahead of ourselves. We needed to catch our breath.’”

“Lereah dismissed widespread concerns about the lack of affordable homes in Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast. Lereah said, that number isn’t so steep compared to other parts of the country such as New York and northern New Jersey.”

“While Lereah is bullish on the long-term future of Florida’s housing market, he warned that hurricanes and soaring insurance premiums pose threats. ‘If we have another bad hurricane season,’ he said, ‘all bets are off.’”

[Courtesy of The Housing Bubble Blog]

Lereah on Existing Home Sales

2006-04-25T10:46:00.000-07:00

"It’s a good sign to see home sales holding close to the level of a strong rebound in the month before,” he said. “This is additional evidence that we’re experiencing a soft landing. We may see some minor slowing in home sales as interest rates rise, but the market clearly is stabilizing"

NAR March Existong Homes Sales Press Release

Lereah on Economy and Housing Market

2006-04-11T12:30:00.000-07:00

"Economic growth and job creation are providing a favorable backdrop for the housing market, but rising interest rates have an offsetting effect," Lereah said in a statement.

David Lereah on Stuff

2006-04-08T21:29:00.000-07:00

That's what spurred all this on in the beginning," says David Lereah, the NAR's chief economist. "It's like all the stars are aligned. The tax situations helped, but at the same time, baby boomers were entering their peak earning years. That's why we just boomed in second homes."

He thinks the trend crested in 2005. With rising interest rates, tighter lending standards and slower price appreciation, Lereah expects second-home sales to drop this year to 30 percent of all existing-home sales, and maybe into the 20 percent range.

"What's going to be leaving the market right now are the speculative investors who came into the market and were trying to flip homes," he said. "They were buying one, two, three or four properties at a time, and that was distorting the numbers." USAToday 4/8/06